Archives: Solution Manual

Forecasting Causal regression analysis Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Dep Variable (or) (Y) Indep Variable (or) (X) Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Year 1 41 4000 39.610 1.390 1.390 1.933 3.39% Year 2 38 3500 […]

Forecasting Multiple regression Input Data Forecasts and Error Analysis Y x 1 x 2 Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Student 1 3.700 690.000 34.000 3.798 -0.098 0.098 0.010 2.64% Student 2 3.000 610.000 29.000 3.474 -0.474 […]

Forecasting Causal regression analysis Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period GPA CBAT Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Student 1 3.70 690 3.737 -0.037 0.037 0.001 0.99% Student 2 3.00 610 3.537 -0.537 0.537 0.289 17.91% Student […]

Forecasting Multiple regression Input Data Forecasts and Error Analysis Y x 1 x 2 Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Car 8 $7,900.00 73,100 68822.383 -922.383 922.383 850790.303 11.68% Car 9 $6,200.00 77,500 87634.869 -1434.869 1434.869 2058849.257 […]

Forecasting Causal regression analysis Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Dep Variable (or) (Y) Indep Variable (or) (X) Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error SE 1532.393 Forecast 10861.754 46700 Correlation -0.850 r-squared 0.722 Lower 95% interval $8,341.19 […]

Forecasting Causal regression analysis Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Student Dep Variable (or) (Y) Indep Variable (or) (X) Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error D 3.55 730 3.469 0.081 0.081 0.007 2.27% F 3.98 430 2.614 1.366 […]

Forecasting Causal regression analysis Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Dep Variable (or) (Y) Indep Variable (or) (X) Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Year 1 0.29 2.34 0.357 -0.067 0.067 0.004 23.11% Problem 11-31 Year 2 […]

Sales Seasonal index Seasonalized sales $130,000 1.25 $162,500 Problem 11-30 $150,000 0.95 $142,500 $170,000 0.75 $127,500 $190,000 1.05 $199,500

Season Demand Average demand Ratio Season index Year 3 demand Fall Y1 125 175.0 0.71 0.86 192.9 Winter Y1 225 175.0 1.29 1.43 321.4 Problem 11-29 Spring Y1 75 175.0 0.43 0.47 106.1 Summer Y1 210 175.0 1.20 1.24 279.6 […]

Forecasting Causal regression analysis Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Dep Variable (or) (Y) Indep Variable (or) (X) Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Year 1 30 67.3 27.003 2.997 2.997 8.982 9.99% Year 2 27 70.6 […]

Forecasting Linear trend analysis Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Actual value (or) Y Period number (or) X Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Year 1 30 1 27.018 2.982 2.982 8.891 9.94% Year 2 27 2 […]

Forecasting Linear trend analysis Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Actual value (or) Y Period number (or) X Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Year 1 14 1 12.026 1.974 1.974 3.898 14.10% Year 2 9 2 […]

Forecasting Exponential smoothing Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Actual value Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Month 1 83.0 78.000 Month 2 81.5 79.000 2.500 2.500 6.250 3.07% Problem 11-25(a) Month 3 77.8 79.500 -1.700 1.700 […]

Forecasting Exponential smoothing Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Actual value Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Week 1 21 22.000 Week 2 25 21.700 3.300 3.300 10.890 13.20% Week 3 23 22.690 0.310 0.310 0.096 1.35% […]

Forecasting Exponential smoothing Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Actual value Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Month 17 55 32.640 7.360 7.360 54.175 18.40% Month 18 40 33.744 21.256 21.256 451.830 38.65% Month 19 35 36.932 […]

Forecasting 3 period moving average Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Actual Value Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Month 1 9 Month 2 12 Month 3 14 Month 4 811.667 -3.667 3.667 13.444 45.83% Month 5 […]

Forecasting Causal regression analysis Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Dep Variable (or) (Y) Indep Variable (or) (X) Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Month 1 3 4 4.238 -1.238 1.238 1.533 41.27% Month 2 6 5 […]

Forecasting 3 period weighted moving average Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Actual value Weights Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Week 1 22 1 Week 2 26 3 Problem 11-20(a) Week 3 23 5 Week 4 […]

Forecasting Exponential smoothing Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Actual value Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Year 1 480 440.000 Problem 11-19 (a) Year 2 525 454.000 71.000 71.000 5041.000 13.52% Year 3 548 478.850 69.150 […]

Forecasting 3 period weighted moving average Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Actual value Weights Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Week 1 22 0.000 Week 2 27 0.417 Problem 11-18(a) Week 3 30 0.583 Week 4 […]

Forecasting 2 period moving average Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Actual Value Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Week 1 22 Week 2 27 Week 3 30 24.500 5.500 5.500 30.250 18.33% Week 4 21 28.500 […]

Forecasting Exponential smoothing Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Actual value Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Day 1 622 622.000 Day 2 418 622.000 -204.000 204.000 41616.000 48.80% Problem 11-16(a) Day 3 608 564.477 43.523 43.523 […]

Forecasting 2 period moving average Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Actual Value Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Day 1 622 Day 2 418 Problem 11-15 Day 3 608 520.000 88.000 88.000 7744.000 14.47% Day 4 […]

Forecasting 3 period moving average Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Actual Value Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Semester 1 2.4 Semester 2 2.9 Semester 3 3.1 Problem 11-14(a) Semester 4 3.2 2.800 0.400 0.400 0.160 […]

Forecasting 2 period moving average Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Actual Value Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Period 1 4 Period 2 8 Problem 11-13(a) Period 3 6 6.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00% Period 4 […]

2. Select the items or quantities that are to be forecasted. 4. Select the forecasting model. 6. Validate the forecasting model. 8. Implement the results. account any factors that may influence the quantity being forecasted. Causal models use historical data […]

Forecasting Causal regression analysis Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Dep Variable (or) (Y) Indep Variable (or) (X) Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error 1996 68 22 67.122 0.878 0.878 0.772 1.29% 1997 75 25 76.081 -1.081 […]

1999 78 26 2000 99 33 2001 104 35 2002 120 39 2003 133 44 Average Kwik Lube sales = 1.419 + 2.986 × (Average industry sales) Forecasted average Kwik Lube sales for 2004 and 2005 can be estimated using […]

Forecasting Multiplicative decomposition 4 seasons Input Data Seasonal Index Computation Forecast Error analysis Period Actual value (Y) Time period (X) Centered average Seasonal ratio Seasonal index Unseason alized value Unseason alized Forecast Seasonali zed Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error […]

an indicator variable for three of the four seasons. We do not include a variable for the fourth season since this would make the columns linearly dependent. The resulting equation (see file Ch11 Internet Case Human Resources.XLS, sheet Regression) is: […]

Forecasting Causal regression analysis Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Dep Variable (or) (Y) Indep Variable (or) (X) Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error 1996 53353 1 53549.709 -196.709 196.709 38694.466 0.37% Internet Case: Akron Zoological Park […]

where 1996 = year 1, 1997 = year 2, and so on. R2 = 77.6%. MAPE = 9.94%. The forecasts for 2006 (year 11) and 2007 (year 12) are 145,523 and 154,720, respectively. Using a weighted average of $2.875 to […]

Forecasting Multiplicative decomposition 5 seasons Input Data Seasonal Index Computation Forecast Error analysis Game 9 25300 9 35340.000 0.716 0.747 33860.962 36526.391 27291.537 -1991.537 1991.537 3966218.761 7.87% Game 10 36200 10 35340.000 1.024 1.015 35652.064 36998.787 37567.421 –1367.421 1367.421 1869840.031 […]

Forecasting Causal regression analysis Input Data Forecast Error Analysis Period Dep Variable (or) (Y) Indep Variable (or) (X) Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error Absolute % error Year 1 51.8 6512 53.020 -1.220 1.220 1.489 2.36% North-South Airline Year 2 […]

Prob(>300K) 62.00% Average $347,249 Initial employees = 1000 1 $333,555 Monthly premium = $100 2 $538,318 Prob of major claim = 0.10 to 0.15 D Uniform 3 -$9,367 12 $824,977 13 $412,693 14 $330,392 15 $890,055 16 $116,103 17 $754,309 […]

3 2.0% $61,200.00 $6,120.00 11.33% $13,630.85 $19,750.85 Max raise % 8 2 $1,309,763 5 1.0% $64,902.60 $6,490.26 -2.93% $26,422.58 $32,912.84 Min return % -5 4 $880,822 7 8.0% $74,300.50 $7,430.05 10.03% $43,625.27 $51,055.32 6 $1,341,662 9 5.0% $81,916.30 $8,191.63 -1.64% […]

H A D C F B I G E J Start Data Table Calculations set to Manual. Press F9 to recalculate simulation values. Run Time Activity Immed. pred. Minimu m time Maximum time Activity time Start time Finish time 16 […]

C I G E B H F A D Data Table Calculations set to Manual. Activity Immed. pred. Optimistic time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessimistic time (b) Expected time Std Dev Activity time Start time Finish time Run Compl […]

F I A D K C B H G E Start J L End Data Table Calculations set to Manual. Press F9 to recalculate simulation values. Run Time Activity Immed. pred. Mean Std dev Activity time Start time Finish time […]

B I E C D H F A G Data Table Calculations set to Manual. Activity Immed. pred. Optimistic time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessimistic time (b) Expected time Std Dev Activity time Start time Finish time Run Compl […]

A H F K C B I D Start E G J End Data Table Calculations set to Manual. Press F9 to recalculate simulation values. Run Profit Activity Immed. pred. Mean Std dev Activity time Start time Finish time H […]

Data Table (Calculations set to Manual. Press F9 to recalculate). Custo- mer Time between arrivals Arrival time Start service Service time End service Wait time Queue length RN intvl LL Arrival Proba- bility Run Queue Length Prob (Wait>=3) 0 0 […]

Data Table Calculations set to Manual. Press F9 to recalculate. Custo- mer # Time between arrivals Arrival time Start service Service time End service Wait time Queue length Run Total cost per day 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 […]

Data Table (Calculations set to Manual. Press F9 to recalculate). Unit cost $12 Run Profit 31 $287,100 32 $177,820 33 $201,240 34 $232,100 35 $219,980 36 $208,980 37 $226,350 38 $102,460 39 $219,990 40 $194,610 41 $247,370 42 $265,430 23 […]

Data Table Calculations set to Manual. Press F9 to recalculate. Fail # Time between failures Actual failure time Begin maint Wait for maint Maint time End maint Time in system Begin maint Wait for maint Maint time End maint Time […]

Data Table (Calculations set to Manual. Press F9 to recalculate). Time Between Arrival Begin Wait for Service End Time in Run Wait P(T>=3) Customer 29 486 86 0 3 89 331 2.67 0.335 30 187 89 2 4 93 632 […]

Problem 10-39 Data Table Calculations set to Manual. Press F9 to recalculate. Demand 153 12 $110.00 23.53% Sales 153 13 $170.00 0.00% 14 $170.00 0.00% Revenue $229.50 15 $144.50 10.00% Cost $85.00 16 $102.50 26.47% Number of pretzels available 170 […]

Data Table (Calculations set to Manual. Press F9 to recalculate). Time Between Arrival Begin Wait for Service End Time in Run Wait System Utilization Customer 37 4108 109 1 3 112 439 3.46 6.03 0.915 38 3111 112 1 4 […]

Data Table Calculations set to Manual. Press F9 to recalculate. House Home? Donate? Type? $15? $25? $35? Other $ Run Total 27 Yes Donate $25 $0 $25 $0 $0 27 $60 28 Yes Decline N/A $0 $0 $0 $0 28 […]

Data Table Calculations set to Manual. Press F9 to recalculate. Probability of residential 0.70 No. of projects: 14 Run Profit Resid revenue (Normal) 1 $10,323 Mean $500 Project Type Revenue 2 $6,312 Standard deviation $50 1 Resid $508 3 $6,712 […]