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Forecasting Multiplicative decomposition
5 seasons
Input Data Seasonal Index Computation Forecast Error analysis
Game 9 25300 9 35340.000 0.716 0.747 33860.962 36526.391 27291.537 -1991.537 1991.537 3966218.761 7.87%
Game 10 36200 10 35340.000 1.024 1.015 35652.064 36998.787 37567.421 –1367.421 1367.421 1869840.031 3.78%
Game 11 35900 11 37400.000 0.960 1.025 35019.788 37471.184 38413.011 –2513.011 2513.011 6315226.481 7.00%
Game 12 46500 12 37400.000 1.243 1.162 40027.132 37943.580 44079.513 2420.487 2420.487 5858756.635 5.21%
Game 13 43100 13 38520.000 1.119 1.075 40095.008 38415.977 41295.131 1804.869 1804.869 3257552.591 4.19%
Game 14 27900 14 38520.000 0.724 0.747 37340.745 38888.373 29056.346 –1156.346 1156.346 1337137.178 4.14%
Game 15 39200 15 39640.000 0.989 1.015 38606.655 39360.770 39965.705 -765.705 765.705 586303.487 1.95%
Game 16 41900 16 39640.000 1.057 1.025 40872.677 39833.166 40834.362 1065.638 1065.638 1135585.273 2.54%
Game 17 46100 17 40240.000 1.146 1.162 39682.812 40305.563 46823.456 -723.456 723.456 523389.221 1.57%
Game 18 43900 18 40240.000 1.091 1.075 40839.231 40777.959 43834.136 65.864 65.864 4338.036 0.15%
Game 19 30100 19 40620.000 0.741 0.747 40285.176 41250.356 30821.156 -721.156 721.156 520066.226 2.40%
Game 20 40500 20 40620.000 0.997 1.015 39886.978 41722.752 42363.988 –1863.988 1863.988 3474451.997 4.60%
Game 21 42500 21 41100.000 1.034 1.025 41457.966 42195.149 43255.712 -755.712 755.712 571100.165 1.78%
Game 22 48200 22 41100.000 1.173 1.162 41490.489 42667.545 49567.400 –1367.400 1367.400 1869782.047 2.84%
Game 23 44200 23 43320.000 1.020 1.075 41118.314 43139.941 46373.142 –2173.142 2173.142 4722544.382 4.92%
Game 24 33900 24 43320.000 0.783 0.747 45371.012 43612.338 32585.966 1314.034 1314.034 1726685.701 3.88%
Game 25 47800 25 44580.000 1.072 1.015 47076.482 44084.734 44762.272 3037.728 3037.728 9227792.470 6.36%
Game 26 46900 26 44580.000 1.052 1.025 45750.085 44557.131 45677.062 1222.938 1222.938 1495577.783 2.61%
Game 27 50100 27 45400.000 1.104 1.162 43126.007 45029.527 52311.343 –2211.343 2211.343 4890038.034 4.41%
Game 28 45900 28 45400.000 1.011 1.075 42699.788 45501.924 48912.147 –3012.147 3012.147 9073029.285 6.56%
Game 29 36300 29 0.747 48583.119 45974.320 34350.776 1949.224 1949.224 3799475.909 5.37%
Slope 472.396
Seasonal Ratios
1.052 1.104 1.011
Average 1.025 1.162 1.075 0.747 1.015
Forecasts for future periods
Period
Unseasonali
zed forecast
Seasonal
index
Seasonaliz
ed forecast
31.000 46919.113 1.025 48098.412
32.000 47391.510 1.162 55055.286
33.000 47863.906 1.075 51451.152
34.000 48336.303 0.747 36115.585
35.000 48808.699 1.015 49558.839
36.000 49281.096 1.025 50519.762
37.000 49753.492 1.162 57799.230
38.000 50225.889 1.075 53990.158
39.000 50698.285 0.747 37880.395
40.000 51170.682 1.015 51957.123
Southwestern University
Period
period (X)
average
Seasonal
Seasonal
index
Unseasonal
Forecast
Seasonaliz
Game 1 34200 1 1.025 33361.469 32747.219 33570.311 629.689 629.689 396508.011 1.84%
Game 2 39800 2 1.162 34259.782 33219.616 38591.627 1208.373 1208.373 1460166.413 3.04%
Game 3 38200 3 34840.000 1.096 1.075 35536.643 33692.012 36217.120 1982.880 1982.880 3931812.542 5.19%
Game 4 26900 4 34840.000 0.772 0.747 36002.367 34164.408 25526.727 1373.273 1373.273 1885878.488 5.11%
Game 5 35100 5 35300.000 0.994 1.015 34568.714 34636.805 35169.137 -69.137 69.137 4779.968 0.20%
Game 6 36100 6 35300.000 1.023 1.025 35214.884 35109.201 35991.661 108.339 108.339 11737.272 0.30%
Game 7 40200 7 35160.000 1.143 1.162 34604.101 35581.598 41335.570 -1135.570 1135.570 1289518.865 2.82%
Game 8 39100 8 35160.000 1.112 1.075 36373.893 36053.994 38756.126 343.874 343.874 118249.670 0.88%
50000
60000
Actual vs. Forecast
