Archives: Solution Manual

Lock-in now -$1,000 0.3 0.5 Increase 0.5% Increase 0.5% 1 -$4,800 -$2,900 -$4,800 0.25 Don’t lock-in 1 month Unchanged 2 -$2,400 -$270 -$3,000 -$2,400 0.25 Decrease 0.5% $0 $0 Lock-in 1 month -$500 -$500 0.5 0.25 Don’t lock-in now Unchanged […]

0.78 Good market 0.45 Poor market Positive result 0.500 1 0.500 0.851 Not Produce 0.800 0.800 Questionnaire 0.27 0.823 Good market 0.950 Produce 0.950 0.622 0.73 0.55 Poor market Negative result 0.500 2 0.500 0.800 Not Produce 0.800 0.800 0.89 […]

0.78 Good market (a) Conduct questionnaire. $135,000 If positive, produce razor. Produce $140,000 $135,000 0.27 -$5,000 $35,824 Good market $135,000 Produce $140,000 $135,000 $0 -$28,520 0.73 0.55 Poor market Negative result -$89,000 2 -$84,000 -$89,000 $0 -$5,000 Not Produce -$5,000 […]

Dollar Utility -$600 0.00 -$500 0.03 $550 0.17 $3,400 0.90 $3,500 1.00 0.75 Risk seeker. -$600 $0 $600 $1,200 $1,800 $2,400 $3,000 $3,600 Monetary value Problem 8-39 (b) 0.00 0.25 0.50 1.00 Utility Utility Curve -$50 0.10 $400 0.15

Test land. If test is positive, drill. If test is negative, sell. Expected profit = $427,300. Sell land 0.37 $650 $550 Positive 2 0.46 $0 $1,240 Oil $3,400 Drill Land $4,000 $3,400 -$500 $1,240 0.54 Test land Dry -$600 -$100 […]

Test land. If test is positive, drill. If test is negative, sell. Expected profit = $565,000. Sell land 0.3 $650 $550 Positive 2 0.65 $0 $2,000 Oil $3,400 Drill Land $4,000 $3,400 -$500 $2,000 0.35 Test land Dry -$600 -$100 […]

0.75 Win point 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.75 Win point 0.65 1.00 Hard 1st serve Serve good 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.658 0.00 0.750 0.25 Lose point Hard 2nd serve 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.488 0.35 Serve bad 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.000 […]

Conditional probabilities Prior Probabilities P(Pilot works | Facility works) = 0.80 P(Facility works) = 0.60 P(Pilot fails | Facility works) = 0.20 P(Facility fails) = 0.40 Problem 8-35 P(Pilot works | Facility fails) = 0.15 P(Pilot fails | Facility fails) […]

0.85 Facility works 0.60 Facility fails Pilot works -$885,000 1 -$825,000 –$885,000 $0 $390,000 Don’t build -$60,000 $0 -$60,000 Build pilot 0.20 -$60,000 $210,000 Facility works $615,000 Build facility $675,000 $615,000 $0 -$585,000 0.80 0.40 Facility fails Pilot fails -$885,000 […]

Problem 8-33 0.75 Win point Accept the wager. 0.65 $100 0.75 Win point 0.65 $100 Hard 1st serve Serve good $100 $100 $0 $31.63 $0 $50 0.25 Lose point Hard 2nd serve -$100 -$100 -$100 $0 -$3 0.35 Serve bad […]

0.30 Competitor High 0.55 Our price high Competitor Medium $170,000 $0 $181,250 $250,000 $170,000 0.15 Competitor Low -$55,000 $25,000 -$55,000 0.20 Competitor High $395,000 475000 $395,000 0.75 0.70 Competitor Our price medium Competitor Medium 2 $245,000 $0 $260,000 $0 $260,000 […]

0.83 Sunny (a) Hire Elmo. $16 If he says “good chance”, take lemonade. Cocoa $20 $16 If he says “bad chance”, take cocoa. 0.3 $76 Bad chance $80 $76 1 $0 $61.00 0.25 Sunny $56 Lemonade $60 $56 1 $50.36 […]

P8-30 0.4 EVSI = $101.88 Heavy snow EVwPI $340.00 $700 Max EMV = $125.00 $700 EVPI = $215.00 Efficiency = 47.38% 0.3 New blower Moderate snow $200 Dont hire Adams $0 $70.00 $200 3 $0 $125.00 0.3 Light snow -$900 […]

0.6 1% defect 0.25 Buy from A 3% defect -$180 $0 -$126 -$180 -$180 0.15 5% defect -$300 -$300 -$300 1 -$126 0.3 1% defect -$23 -$60 -$23 0.4 Buy from B 3% defect -$143 $37 -$143 -$180 -$143 0.3 […]

Activity Immed pred Optim time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessim time (b) Expected time Variance Standard deviation R L, M 1 2 3 2.00 0.11 0.33 15.00 17.00 26.50 28.50 11.50 N S N 6 6 9 6.50 0.25 […]

Activity Immediate pred Optim time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessim time (b) Expected time Variance Standard deviation G B 2.0 4.0 6.0 4.00 0.44 0.67 3.50 7.50 15.00 19.00 11.50 N I C 9.0 10.0 14.0 10.50 0.69 0.83 […]

The overall purpose of Problem 7-35 is to have students use a project approach in attempting to solve a problem that almost all students face. The first step is for students to list all courses that they must take, including […]

Activity Immediate predecessors Optim time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessim time (b) Expected time Variance Standard deviation EST EFT LST LST Slack Critical? 1—1.00 4.00 7.00 4.00 1.000 1.00 0.00 4.00 7.50 11.50 7.50 N 2—2.00 3.00 4.00 3.00 […]

Activity Immediate pred Optim time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessim time (b) Expected time Variance Standard deviation EST EFT LST LST Slack Critical? 1 – 3 4 5 4.00 0.11 0.33 0.00 4.00 0.00 4.00 0.00 Y 2 1 […]

Activity Normal time Crash time Normal cost Crash cost Crash cost per day A 7 5 $2,000 $3,500 $750 B10 8$3,000 $4,700 $850 Problem 7-32 C 8 7 $3,400 $3,700 $300 D 6 4 $1,600 $2,600 $500 E 7 4 […]

Activity Normal time Crash time Normal cost Crash cost Crash cost per day A 4 2 $2,000 $2,600 $300 B 6 5 $3,500 $4,300 $800 Problem 7-31 C 8 6 $3,300 $3,900 $300 D 5 4 $1,200 $1,800 $600 E […]

TATBTCTDTETFTGTEnd CACBCCCDCECFCG Start A Start B Start C Start D Start E Start F Start G Start End Crash A Crash B Crash C Crash D Crash E Crash F Crash G Crash limit C 1 0 <= 0 Crash […]

TATBTCTDTETFTGTHCACBCCCDCECFCGCH Start A Start B Start C Start D Start E Start F Start G Start H Crash A Crash B Crash C Crash D Crash E Crash F Crash G Crash H G –> H -1 1 1 5 […]

Activity Budgeted cost ($) % completed Value of work completed Actual cost ($) Difference ($) A$2,200 100% $2,200 $1,900 -$300 Problem 7-28 B$5,100 100% $5,100 $5,300 $200 C$6,000 100% $6,000 $6,150 $150 D$3,600 40% $1,440 $1,800 $360 E$2,700 60% $1,620 […]

Problem 7-27 B D F A C E Using EST: Act Pred Time Cost Cost/P d EST EFT LST LFT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Using LST: A##### ##### B $1,700 $1,700 $1,700 […]

Activity Budgeted cost ($) % completed Value of work completed Actual cost ($) Difference ($) A$10,000 100% $10,000 $13,000 $3,000 B$14,000 100% $14,000 $12,000 -$2,000 Problem 7-26 C$5,000 100% $5,000 $6,000 $1,000 D$6,000 100% $6,000 $6,000 $0 E$14,000 60% $8,400 […]

Using EST: Act Time Cost Cost/P d EST LST 12345678910 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 A 6 ###### ##### […]

Activity Budgeted cost ($) % completed Value of work completed Actual cost ($) Difference ($) A$22,000 100% $22,000 $20,000 -$2,000 Problem 7-24 B$30,000 100% $30,000 $36,000 $6,000 C$26,000 100% $26,000 $26,000 $0 D$48,000 100% $48,000 $44,000 -$4,000 E$56,000 55% $30,800 […]

Problem 7-23 Mean (weeks) 25 (a) P(need <= 30 weeks) = 0.8944 (b) P(need <= 22 weeks) = 0.2266 (c) 99% completion time = 34.31 (d) 85% completion time = 29.15 Standard deviation (weeks) 4

Problem 7-22 Mean (months) 21 Variance (months^2) 6 Standard deviation (months) 2.4495 (a) P(need >= 17 months) = 0.9488 (b) P(need <= 20 months) = 0.3415 (c) P(need >= 23 months) = 0.2071 (d) P(need <= 25 months) = 0.9488

Problem 7-21 H A D C F B I G E J Start Activity Pred Optim time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessim time (b) Expected time Variance Standard deviation EST EFT LST LST Slack Critical? A – 3 7 […]

Problem 7-20 C I G E B H F A D Activity Pred Optim time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessim time (b) Expected time Variance Standard deviation EST EFT LST LST Slack Critical? A – 4 8 12 8.00 […]

Problem 7-19 F I A D K C B H G E Start J L End Activity Pred Optim time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessim time (b) Expected time Variance Standard deviation EST EFT LST LST Slack Critical? A […]

Problem 7-18 B I E C D H F A G Activity Pred Optim time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessim time (b) Expected time Variance Standard deviation EST EFT LST LFT Slack Critical? A – 3 6 6 5.50 […]

Problem 7-17 A H F C B I D Start E G J K End Activity Pred Optim time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessim time (b) Expected time Variance Standard deviation EST EFT LST LFT Slack Critical? A – […]

Problem 7-16 A2 A5 A9 A3 A4 A6 A10 A7 A1 End A8 Activity Time EST EFT LST LST Slack Critical? A1 5 0 5 0 5 0 Y A2 6 5 11 612 1 N A3 2 5 7 […]

Problem 7-14 A C G B D E H F Start End Activity Time EST EFT LST LFT Slack Critical? A 5 0 5 2 7 2 N B 4 0 4 0 4 0 Y Problem 7-15 C 2 […]

Problem 7-15 H K C B D E J F A End G I Activity Time EST EFT LST LFT Slack Critical? A 4 0 4 0 4 0 Y B 6 4 10 410 0 Y C12 10 22 […]

Problem 7-13 A D G B C E H F Start End Activity Time EST EFT LST LFT Slack Critical? A 4 0 4 0 4 0 Y B 6 0 6 1 7 1 N Problem 7-13 C 3 […]

Problem 7-12 B C D E A F G Start Activity Time EST EFT LST LFT Slack Critical? A 2 0 2 13 15 13 N B 5 0 5 0 5 0 Y Problem 7-12 C 1 0 1 […]

these estimates, the expected completion time and completion variance can be determined. CPM allows the use of crashing. This technique allows a manager to reduce the total project completion time by expending additional resources on activities within the network. CPM […]

Activity Pred Optim time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessim time (b) Exp time Var Std dev C A 50.00 60.00 100.00 65.00 69.44 8.33 30.00 95.00 30.00 95.00 0.00 Y E B 25.00 30.00 35.00 30.00 2.78 1.67 90.00 […]

total cost of $15,000. To further crash the project to 240 days from the current 250 days, we crash activity D by 10 days at $1,900/day, for a total cost of $19,000. Hence, the total additional cost to crash the […]

Activity Predecessors Optim time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessim time (b) Exp time Var Std dev EST EFT LST LFT Slack Critical? Critical path = 1 – 1.0 2.0 2.5 1.92 0.06 0.25 0.00 1.92 0.00 1.92 0.00 Y […]

CHAPTER 7 PROJECT MANAGEMENT Internet Case Study: Shale Oil Company 1. The project network is shown below. See file Ch07 Internet Case Shale Oil.XLS. The expected shutdown time is 45.75 days. There are 9 activities on the critical path: 1, […]

Activity Pred Time EST EFT LST LFT Slack Critical? D B 4.0 4.0 8.0 6.0 10.0 2.0 N F C, E 2.0 8.0 10.0 8.0 10.0 0.0 Y End D, F 0.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 Y Critical path […]

However, $300 is saved by allowing activity A (not on any of the critical paths) to take 3 weeks, yielding a net cost increase of $1,050. weeks, with a critical path of E-F. See file Ch07 Internet Case Bay Community.XLS, […]

Activity Pred Optim time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessim time (b) Exp time Var Std dev EST EFT LST LFT Slack Critical? Critical path = A – 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.00 0.11 0.33 0.00 2.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 Y […]

the same as before, but has an expected length of only 31.0 days with a variance of 0.6944. This yields a standard normal value of 4.8 implying that it is almost certain that the issues will be sent out on […]

Activity Immed pred Optim time (a) Most likely time (m) Pessim time (b) Expected time Variance Standard deviation I E 5 7 9 7.00 0.44 0.67 21.00 28.00 21.00 28.00 0.00 Y J D, I 10 11 12 11.00 0.11 […]