Activity Predecessors
Optim
time (a)
Most likely
time (m)
Pessim
time (b)
Exp
time
Var
Std
dev
EST EFT LST LFT Slack Critical? Critical path =
1 – 1.0 2.0 2.5 1.92 0.06 0.25 0.00 1.92 0.00 1.92 0.00 Y Project length = 45.75 days
2 1 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.00 0.03 0.17 1.92 3.92 1.92 3.92 0.00 Y Project variance = 8.0347
3 2 2.0 3.0 4.0 3.00 0.11 0.33 3.92 6.92 3.92 6.92 0.00 Y Project std deviation = 2.8346 days
4 2 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.00 0.11 0.33 3.92 5.92 22.50 24.50 18.58 N
12 5 15.0 20.0 30.0 20.83 6.25 2.50 6.08 26.92 12.42 33.25 6.33 N
13 6 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.50 0.03 0.17 6.42 7.92 15.92 17.42 9.50 N
14 6 3.0 5.0 8.0 5.17 0.69 0.83 6.42 11.58 28.08 33.25 21.67 N
15 7 3.0 8.0 15.0 8.33 4.00 2.00 7.75 16.08 33.42 41.75 25.67 N
16 8 14.0 21.0 28.0 21.00 5.44 2.33 8.92 29.92 8.92 29.92 0.00 Y
Internet Case: Shale Oil Company
1-2-3-8-16-21-
27-28-29
5 2 1.0 2.0 4.0 2.17 0.25 0.50 3.92 6.08 10.25 12.42 6.33 N P(Finish 1 day early) = 0.3621
6 2 2.0 2.5 3.0 2.50 0.03 0.17 3.92 6.42 13.42 15.92 9.50 N P(Finish 2 days early) = 0.2402
7 2 2.0 4.0 5.0 3.83 0.25 0.50 3.92 7.75 29.58 33.42 25.67 N P(Finish 3 days early) = 0.1449
8 3 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.00 0.11 0.33 6.92 8.92 6.92 8.92 0.00 Y P(Finish 4 days early) = 0.0791
9 4 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.50 0.03 0.17 5.92 7.42 26.67 28.17 20.75 N P(Finish 5 days early) = 0.0389
10 4 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.50 0.03 0.17 5.92 7.42 24.50 26.00 18.58 N P(Finish 6 days early) = 0.0171