It is possible to design programs specifically for this segment of people in need of
7-15 Using the chain ratio method described in Appendix 2: Marketing by the Numbers, estimate the
market potential in the military (active duty and veterans) market. Be sure to state any assumptions
you make. (AACSB: Communication; Use of IT; Analytical Reasoning)
Answer:
Students’ assumptions and estimates will vary, and instructors can use this exercise as an illustration
that estimating market potential is not an exact science. The aim of this exercise is not to come up
The chain-ratio method described in Appendix 2 for estimating total market demand uses three
variables:
a) number of prospective buyers
b) quantity purchased by an average buyer per year
c) price of an average unit
Market demand can be determined as follows:
Q = n q p
where
Q = total market demand
n = number of buyers in the market
q = quantity purchased by an average buyer per year
p = price of an average unit
For example, the U.S. Census Bureau reports there are 19,300,000 veterans in the United States as of
2014. Additionally, the number of active duty personnel as of May 2016 is 1,330,356
(http://www.governing.com/gov-data/military-civilian-active-duty-employee-workforce-numbers-by-
state.html, accessed October 16, 2016). However, this number must be discounted because some
military personnel and veterans already have life insurance (focusing on that specific service for this
example). One way to discount this number is to multiply it by the percentage of the U.S. population
that does not have life insurance. LIMRA’s 2014 Insurance Barometer Study indicates that 62% of all
people in the United States were covered by some type of life insurance in 2013
(www.iii.org/fact-statistic/life-insurance). The discount factor would be 38% (that is, 1 – 0.62). Thus,
one estimate of the number of potential military clients, active or veterans, is 20,630,356 × 0.38 =
7,839,535 military. Another factor that could discount this number is when the veterans served. For
example, 35% of all veterans served during the Vietnam-era (1964-1975) and are likely already
covered by insurance, so the total number could be discounted by a factor of 0.65 (that is, 1 – 0.35):
7,839,535 × 0.65 = 5,095,698. Depending on assumptions students make, an estimate could be made
as simply as using the number of veterans who served from 1990-present, which is 5.5 million, or the
number of veterans who are younger than 35, which is 1.7 million (see
www.infoplease.com/spot/veteranscensus1.html, accessed October 16, 2016). The number of current
active duty personnel should increase each of these numbers by 1,330,356 military members.