In 1966, Time magazine made a prediction of the retail world in 2000. It confidently predicted that
remote shopping, although feasible, would never be likely to catch on. Time made this prediction
based on the reasoning that women, in particular, like to handle merchandise before they purchase it.
Not only was the prediction hugely inaccurate, it was chauvinistic as well. Global online sales are
now in excess of $500 billion. It is not only men who spend massive sums online, but also women, in
direct contradiction of Time’s prediction. In contrast to this poor prediction, there are cases of articles
in the press correctly predicting digital trends in the future, but many predictions still fall short of
reality. For example, Robert Metcalf, the inventor of Ethernet, made a prediction in 1995 that, within
a year, the Internet would spectacularly collapse. In 2007, The New York Times predicted that Twitter
would never be any more relevant to modern-day communication than an old-fashioned short-wave
radio. Tuning into predictions can be dangerous, but should they really be ignored?
2-11 In some cases, short-term predictions are far more reliable than long-term ones. To what extent
should businesses base their long-term planning on the views of “experts”? (AACSB:
Communication; Ethical understanding and reasoning)
Answer:
Refer to the Mylab for answers to this and all starred Mylab questions.
2-12 Business Monitor International is one of the several organizations that seek to predict future
trends in sectors, countries, and financial markets. How are these services sold to businesses as
legitimate business planning tools. (AACSB: Communication; Reflective Thinking)
Answer:
A whole industry has been built around the prediction and forecasting business. Business Monitor
International is trusted by many leading global brands. They operate in nearly 200 different
countries and have the advantage of being able to see the bigger picture than a global company
Marketing by the Numbers: Apple vs. Microsoft
In 2014, Apple reported profits of more than $50 billion on sales of $182 billion. For that same
period, Microsoft posted a profit of almost $30 billion on sales of $88 billion. So Apple is a better
marketer, right? Sales and profits provide information to compare the profitability of these two
competitors, but between these numbers is information regarding the efficiency of marketing efforts
in creating those sales and profits. Appendix 2, Marketing by the Numbers, discusses other marketing
profitability measures beyond the return on marketing investment (marketing ROI) measure described
in this chapter. Review the Appendix to answer the questions using the following information from
the two companies’ incomes statements (all numbers are in thousands):
Apple Microsoft
Sales $182,795,000 $86,833,000
Gross Profit $ 70,537,000 $59,899,000
Marketing Expenses $ 8,994,750 $15,474,000