Mishkin • Instructor’s Manual for The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Twelfth Edition 106
19. Suppose that you work as a forecaster of future monthly inflation rates and that your last six
forecasts have been off by minus 1%. Is it likely that your expectations are optimal?
For your expectations to be optimal, they have to include all available information up to date,
20. In the late 1990s, as information technology advanced rapidly and the Internet was widely
developed, U.S. stock markets soared, peaking in early 2001. Later that year, these markets
began to unwind and then crashed, with many commentators identifying the previous few
years as a “stock market bubble.” How might it be possible for this episode to be a bubble
but still adhere to the efficient market hypothesis?
It may be considered a bubble in that stock market prices rose well above true fundamental
21. Why might the efficient market hypothesis be less likely to hold when fundamentals suggest
stocks should be at a lower level?
Behavioral finance suggests that when stock prices rise, market participants are less likely to
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
22. Compute the price of a share of stock that pays a $1 per year dividend and that you expect to
be able to sell in one year for $20, assuming you require a 15% return.
$1/(1.15)+$20/(1.15) =$18.26
23. After careful analysis, you have determined that a firm’s dividends should grow at 7%, on
average, in the foreseeable future. The firm’s last dividend was $3. Compute the current
price of this stock, assuming the required return is 18%.
= − − =
0$3 (1.07)/( 0.18 0.07) $29.18P