A Framework for Selecting Target Markets
As one can infer from this discussion, it would be extremely useful to have formal tools or
frameworks available when assessing emerging country markets.
Table 7-6 presents a market selection framework that incorporates some of the elements just
discussed. Using China, Russia, and Mexico as potential country target markets, the table shows
the countries arranged in declining rank by market size. Initially, China seems to hold the
greatest potential, based on size. However, the competitive advantage of our hypothetical firm
is .07 in China, .10 in Russia, and .20 in Mexico. Multiplying the market size and competitive
advantage index yields a market potential of 7 in China, 5 in Russia, and 4 in Mexico.
The next stage in the analysis requires an assessment of the various market access
considerations. In Table 7-6 all these conditions or terms are reduced to an index number of
terms of access. However, the “market access considerations” are more favorable in Mexico
than in Russia. Multiplying the market potential by the terms of access index suggests that
Mexico holds greater export potential than China or Russia.
Global expert David Arnold has developed a framework that is based on a “bottom-up” analysis,
beginning at the product-market level.
As shown in Figure 7-1, Arnold’s framework incorporates two core concepts: marketing model
drivers and enabling conditions.
Marketing model drivers are key elements or factors required for a business to take root and
grow in a particular country market environment. The drivers may differ depending on whether a
company serves consumer or industrial markets.
Enabling conditions are structural market characteristics whose presence or absence can
determine whether the marketing model can succeed. For example, in India, refrigeration is not
widely available in shops and market food stalls.
The third step is to weigh the estimated costs associated with entering and serving the market.
The issue of timing is often framed in terms of the quest for first-mover advantage. The
conventional wisdom says that the first company to enter a market has the best chance of
becoming the market leader.
The first company to enter a market often makes substantial investments in marketing only to
find that a late-arriving competitor reaps some of the benefits. There is ample evidence that late
entrants into global markets can also achieve success. One way they do this is by benchmarking
established companies and then outmaneuvering them, first locally then globally.
EMERGING MARKETS BRIEFING BOOK
Middle Eastern Airlines Target Lucrative Global Markets