Chapter 16 – Operational Performance Measurement: Further Analysis of Productivity and Sales
16–16
16-36 Productivity and the Economy (20 min)
This question is intended for class discussion. Answers are likely to vary.
Here are some points that could be brought up in the discussion.
It is clear from the BLS predictions and preliminary quarterly measures for
2009 that the rate of productivity increase has fallen from the levels of the
prior few years. Some would argue that the very high rates in 2002 and
2003 were the result of significant workforce reductions by firms in reaction
to the market downturn of 2000-2001. The laid-off workers were rehired
only after businesses were comfortable about the growth in the economy.
Some economists view this as a natural part of the business cycle.
The decline in investment in both capital expenditures and information
technology in 2009 suggests that productivity growth will be reduced
somewhat in the coming few years. However, others note that investment
in information technology can take several years to affect productivity, so
that the recent investments may carry forward for several years beyond
2009.
As in the period of 2000-2001, significant employment reductions have had
the effect of boosting productivity. Note the increase in 2009. The
increase in productivity continued into 2010 with an annual productivity of
4.1, the highest since 2002. However, the first half of 2011 showed a
decline in productivity, to -.0.6. The reasons cited were the increase in
wages and slower pace of workforce reductions during this period. Note
how the pattern of increase in productivity in periods of workforce reduction
(2001-2003, and 2008-2010) are followed by periods of lower productivity.
The reason is that the large workforce reductions show significant gains in
productivity which are difficult to maintain without further layoffs which are
not indicated by the strengthening economy in 2010-11.
Most economists accurately predicted that productivity would increase in
2009 – 2010, but these economists are advising that the next few years will
show lower, perhaps much lower productivity. The figures for 2011 and the
first quarter of 2012 are consistent with that (most recent data as of June
2012).