CHAPTER 21 A-4
Lecture Tip: The opportunity to exploit a triangle arbitrage may
appear to be an easy opportunity to make a quick profit. Point out
that arbitrage opportunities are rare and that the transaction costs
for small investors would outweigh any profit opportunity
available.
Types of Transactions
Spot trade – exchange of currencies at immediate prices (spot rate)
Forward trade – contract for the exchange of currencies at a future
date at a price specified today (forward rate)
Premium – if the forward rate > spot rate (based on $ equivalent or
direct quotes), then the foreign currency is expected to appreciate
and is selling at a premium
Discount – if the forward rate < spot rate (based on $ equivalent or
direct quotes), then the foreign currency is expected to depreciate
and is selling at a discount
Lecture Tip: The late economist Milton Friedman provided a
primer on exchange rates in the November 2, 1998 issue of Forbes
magazine. He described three types of exchange rate regimes.
Fixed rate or unified currency: “The clearest example is a
common currency: the dollar in the U.S.; the euro that will shortly
reign in the common market … the key feature of the currency
board is that there is only one central bank with the power to
create money.”
Pegged exchange rate: “This prevailed in the East Asian countries
other than Japan. All had national central banks with the power to
create money and committed themselves to maintain the price of
their domestic currency in terms of the U.S. dollar at a fixed level,
or within narrow bounds – a policy they had been encouraged to
adopt by the IMF … In a world of free capital flows, such a regime
is a ticking time bomb. It is never easy to know whether a [current
account] deficit is transitory and will soon be reversed or is the
precursor to further deficits.”
Floating rates: “The third type of exchange rate regime is one
under which rates of exchange are determined in the market on the
basis of predominantly private transactions. In pure form, clean
floating, the central bank does not intervene in the market to affect
the exchange rate though it or the government may engage in
21-4