Bonus C – Managing Risk
C-38
betting, or investing in both. In the 1980s, Microsoft embraced both Windows and OS/2 until one system
prevailed. In both these cases, the companies not only managed their risk, they also grew their businesses.
lecture link C-2
RISK PERCEPTION: ANALYTICAL VERSUS INTUITIVE
Washington Post writer Joel Achenbach recalls the man he encountered on the morning of Sep-
tember 11, 2001. In the hours after terrorists flew a plane into the Pentagon, Achenbach joined the hasty
evacuation near the Federal Reserve. He came across a man sitting calmly on a park bench reading a
newspaper. The man had no interest in the evacuation or even listening to the news bulletins. He told
Achenbach that he figured the danger was over and went back to his stock listings.
Feelings can also cause us to make illogical decisions. A 1993 experiment offered people a
chance to win a dollar by drawing a red jellybean from one of two bowls. One bowl had 200 beans, 7 of
them red. The other had 10 beans, only 1 red. Many people preferred the bowl with the 7 red beans, even
though they knew the odds were worse. However, they said they felt as if they had a better chance.
Another experiment highlights the emotional, intuitive element in decision making. Clinicians at
a mental hospital were more likely to release a patient from a hospital if told he had a 20% chance of be-
coming violent than if told 20 out of 100 such patients would become violent. The visual image of the
second scenario was more frightening, although the two risks were actually equivalent.