Magnatree is a large company that has been working on a new product. This product
has tremendous potential, but Magnatree must move quickly. They have decided that
they will introduce the product in two months and have already started developing their
advertising campaign.
They are sure that the product will be a success, with a possibility that it will be a huge
success. They recently found out that another company, Shadycorp, has some unique
expertise that could significantly improve the new product. They contacted them and
Shadycorp offered to sell their expertise to Magnatree for $5 million. Magnatree needs
to make an immediate decision on Shadycorp’s offer or it will be too late to investigate
the use of the expertise in design of the new product. Without the expertise Magnatree
has a 20% chance of making the new product a huge success. With Shadycorp’s
expertise there will be a 40% chance of the new product being a huge success.
If the new product is a huge success, the net present value of its future profits is
expected to be $50 million. If it is merely a success, the net present value of its future
profits is expected to be $20 million.
(a) Construct a decision tree and solve it.
(b) Should Magnatree accept Shadycorp’s offer?
(c) What is the expected net present value of its future profits from the new product?