138. Based on experience, you observe the following probabilities regarding the underlying
cause of an observed cost or revenue variance: the probability,
p
, of a nonrandom variance
equals 0.10, and the probability, 1 –
p
of a nonrandom variance equals 0.90. If management
chooses to investigate, the total cost is $1,000 if it is concluded that the reported variance is a
random fluctuation, while the total cost is $6,000 if it is concluded that the variance is the result
of a nonrandom (i.e., a systematic) cause (i.e., the incremental cost to correct the variance is
$5,000). On the other hand, if an observed variance is not investigated, management expects the
following costs: if it is concluded that the variance is due to random causes, the cost would be
$0; if it is concluded that the observed variance is due to a nonrandom (i.e., a systematic) cause,
the cost would be $30,000.
Given this information, what is the indifference probability,
p
(i.e., the probability of a nonrandom
variance that would make management indifferent between investigating and not investigating
the variance)? (Round your answer to one decimal place.)