Chapter 11 Inductive Reasoning Answer Key
Short Answer Questions
1.
Make this inductive (statistical) syllogism into a strong argument by supplying an
appropriate premise or conclusion: Greg must be into all that New Age stuff since he
wears his hair in a ponytail.
Most people who wear their hair in a ponytail are New Agers.
2.
Make this inductive (statistical) syllogism into a strong argument by supplying an
appropriate premise or conclusion: People who go to Burning Man are not like you and me.
Why just look at how odd Greg is!
Greg goes to Burning Man.
3.
Make this inductive (statistical) syllogism into a strong argument by supplying an
appropriate premise or conclusion: Dennis plays trumpet in the marching band at Yale, so
he probably doesn’t have a girlfriend.
Most people who play in marching bands don’t have girlfriends/boyfriends.
4.
Make this inductive (statistical) syllogism into a strong argument by supplying an
appropriate premise or conclusion: We’re going to the home of our Italian friends, Marco
and Claudia, for dinner. I suspect it’ll be really good.
Most Italians are good cooks.
5.
Make this inductive (statistical) syllogism into a strong argument by supplying an
appropriate premise or conclusion: A vast number of people who care about sustainability
have a vegetable garden, so Scott probably does, too.
Scott cares about sustainability.
6.
Make this inductive (statistical) syllogism into a strong argument by supplying an
appropriate premise or conclusion: Most people with old cars have financial problems, so
Anne and Dennis must be struggling financially.
Anne and Dennis have old cars.
7.
Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College, and she has a grade average
of B so far. All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology. She’s
thinking of enrolling in another course next term, and she expects to make at least a B in
whatever she takes. If we don’t know yet what subject she will take, would her argument
be stronger, weaker, or neither if her previous six courses had been in four different
subjects rather than two?
Stronger.
8.
Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College, and she has a grade average
of B so far. All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology. She’s
thinking of enrolling in another course next term, and she expects to make at least a B in
whatever she takes. Would Juanita’s argument be stronger, weaker, or neither if we knew
that the new course will be in psychology?
Stronger. If her new course is in a subject that we know is included in the premise-
analogue, that tells us of at least one relevant similarity.
9.
Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College, and she has a grade average
of B so far. All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology. She’s
thinking of enrolling in another course next term, and she expects to make at least a B in
whatever she takes. Would you assess Juanita’s argument as stronger, weaker, or neither
if you knew that she had made a B in each of her previous courses and not just that she
has a B average?
Stronger. She could have a B average even though she had made Cs in some of her
previous courses, and such a possibility weakens the argument.
10.
Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College, and she has a grade average
of B so far. All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology. She’s
thinking of enrolling in another course next term, and she expects to make at least a B in
whatever she takes. Suppose that when she took the previous courses, Juanita had done
all her studying alone because she didn’t know any of the other students at Valley but that
now she knows several good students and plans to study with them when she takes her
next course. Would her argument be stronger or weaker?
Weaker. This may seem paradoxical, but we’re thinking of a separate argument (which
might go something like this: Juanita studies better when she studies with other good
students; she did not study with other students for her previous courses, but she’ll study
with other good students for the next course; therefore, she’ll study better for the next
course). This other argument would support the conclusion, provided that its premises are
true. But the original analogical argument is weakened because of the addition of a
relevant difference between the conclusion-analogue and the premise-analogue.
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11.
Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised
to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a
pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. “It works,” she tells her husband.
What causal claim (if any) is stated or implied in Lin’s conclusion?
Placing the pan of beans on the serving tray kept them hot.
12.
Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised
to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a
pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. “It works,” she tells her husband.
What kind of causal claim is this?
Causation between a specific case of cause and effect.
13.
Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised
to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a
pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. “It works,” she tells her husband.
What type of argument or pattern of reasoning is employed?
Paired Unusual Events Principle.
14.
Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised
to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a
pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. “It works,” she tells her husband.
Invent at least one plausible alternative explanation of the effect.
The beans stayed hot all by themselves—that is, they would have stayed hot even if they
had been placed on a standard trivet.
15.
Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised
to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a
pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. “It works,” she tells her husband.
Do you think there could be a better test of the hot plate? Explain your response in a
sentence or two.
Compare what happens with two pans of beans of the same temperature, one left on the
hot plate and the other on a standard surface.
16.
Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised
to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a
pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. “It works,” she tells her husband.
Is Lin using good causal reasoning?
No: It’s a
post hoc
.
Multiple Choice Questions
17.
In generalizing from a sample, in order to achieve an error margin of plus or minus 3
percentage points at a confidence level of about 95 percent, what’s the smallest random
sample we can get away with, regardless of the size of the population?
A.
10 percent of the population
B.
100
C.
500
D.
1,000
E.
5,000
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18.
With the same confidence level, a generalization from a larger sample will have
A.
less strength.
B.
a smaller error margin.
C.
a larger error margin.
D.
a larger population.
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19.
When we generalize from a sample, we draw a conclusion
A.
about a sample based on a population.
B.
about a population based on a sample.
C.
about an attribute of interest based on a population.
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20.
A sample is random if
A.
it is chosen by a method the investigator does not know anything about.
B.
an important variable is disproportionately present or absent.
C.
every member of the population has an equal chance at being selected for the sample.
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21.
Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo
Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale
competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it’s time to make
the next order, she decides she’s better off with Papagayo because she’s pretty sure she’ll
get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird
business.)
The premise-analogue in the passage is
A.
the new order.
B.
the previous four orders.
C.
the Papagayo Co.
D.
the competitors.
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22.
Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo
Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale
competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it’s time to make
the next order, she decides she’s better off with Papagayo because she’s pretty sure she’ll
get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird
business.)
If Julia had placed seven orders with Papagayo with the same result, her argument would
be
A.
stronger.
B.
weaker.
C.
neither stronger nor weaker.
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23.
Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo
Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale
competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it’s time to make
the next order, she decides she’s better off with Papagayo because she’s pretty sure she’ll
get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird
business.)
If all the preceding orders had been for parrots, then her argument would be stronger if
the new order was for
A.
both parrots and macaws.
B.
just parrots.
C.
just macaws.
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24.
Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo
Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale
competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it’s time to make
the next order, she decides she’s better off with Papagayo because she’s pretty sure she’ll
get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird
business.)
If we don’t know what kind of bird she’s about to order, we have the strongest argument if
the previous orders were
A.
some for parrots and some for macaws.
B.
just for parrots.
C.
just for macaws.
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25.
Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo
Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale
competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it’s time to make
the next order, she decides she’s better off with Papagayo because she’s pretty sure she’ll
get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird
business.)
Given the original circumstances, which of these
conclusions
would produce the strongest
argument?
A.
Most of the birds in the new shipment will be healthy.
B.
All the birds in the new shipment will be healthy.
C.
None of the birds in the new shipment will be healthy.
D.
Some of the birds in the new shipment will be able to swear in two languages.
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26.
Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo
Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale
competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it’s time to make
the next order, she decides she’s better off with Papagayo because she’s pretty sure she’ll
get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird
business.)
The original passage is
A.
an argument from analogy.
B.
generalizing from a sample.
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27.
Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo
Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale
competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it’s time to make
the next order, she decides she’s better off with Papagayo because she’s pretty sure she’ll
get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird
business.)
If Julia orders more expensive birds in the new order, her argument would
A.
become stronger.
B.
become weaker.
C.
have no effect on the argument.
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28.
Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo
Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale
competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it’s time to make
the next order, she decides she’s better off with Papagayo because she’s pretty sure she’ll
get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird
business.)
The attribute of interest here is
A.
the Papagayo Company.
B.
Julia.
C.
healthy birds.
D.
the next order.
E.
Papagayo’s competitors.
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29.
Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? “My
printer won’t work because it’s not properly hooked up to my computer.”
A.
physical
B.
behavioral
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30.
Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? “The
reason I can’t get my printer to work is because I’m a mechanical idiot.”
A.
physical
B.
behavioral
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31.
Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? “The lack
of adequate public transport indirectly contributes to global warming.”
A.
physical
B.
behavioral
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32.
Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? “He is not
attending the concert because his ex-girlfriend is performing there.”
A.
behavioral
B.
physical
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33.
Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? “Her
artistic immaturity makes her think that singers like Jeff are great artists.”
A.
physical
B.
behavioral
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34.
Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? “The
reason she thinks Michel is a great singer is because she’s tone-deaf.”
A.
physical
B.
behavioral
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35.
Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? “They’re
not driving as much because they think the price of gas is too high.”
A.
physical
B.
behavioral
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36.
Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? “Oil will
soon disappear because the supply is finite and most of it has been used.”
A.
physical
B.
behavioral
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37.
Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? “Her arm
developed a rash because she’s allergic to the bracelet she was wearing.”
A.
physical
B.
behavioral
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38.
Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? “The
reason she’s not wearing that bracelet is because it reminds her of an old girlfriend.”
A.
physical
B.
behavioral
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39.
Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? “She
believes that she contributes to global warming each time she drives, so she walks to
work.”
A.
behavioral
B.
physical
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40.
An experiment in which subjects are randomly assigned either to an “experimental group”
or a “control group” is called a
A.
randomized controlled experiment.
B.
randomized observational study.
C.
randomized cohort trial.
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41.
In prospective observational studies, we use “d” to stand for
A.
the difference between the frequency of an effect in the experimental group and that in
the control group.
B.
the difference between the frequency of a suspected cause in the experimental group
and that in the control group.
C.
the data accumulated from the control group.
D.
the data accumulated from the experimental group.
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42.
When an experiment displays an outcome that is statistically significant at the .05 level, it
means that
A.
there is a 95 percent probability that the outcome was not a result of chance.
B.
there is a 5 percent probability that the outcome was not a result of chance.
C.
there is a 95 percent probability that the outcome was flawed.
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43.
When we say that the number is “statistically significant,” which of these is closest to
what we mean?
A.
the number is big enough for a sample in a good argument.
B.
the number is big enough to negate the results of other experiments.
C.
the number is big enough to have resulted from something besides chance.
D.
the number is big enough to influence events that happen later in the series.
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