Conditional probabilities Prior probabilities
P(Growth prediction | Actual growth) = 0.75 P(Actual growth) = 0.30
P(Growth prediction | Actual steady) = 0.18 P(Actual steady) = 0.45
Posterior probabilities GIVEN growth prediction
Conditional prob Prior Joint Posterior
Outcome P(Growth pred | Outcome) prob prob prob
Actual growth 0.75 0.30 0.225 0.6955
Posterior probabilities GIVEN steady prediction
Conditional prob Prior Joint Posterior
Problem 8-49