# Mathematics Chapter 11 Homework Problem 11-44 Forecasting Seasons Input Data Period

Type Homework Help
Pages 1
Words 128
Authors Barry Render, Jr. Ralph M. Stair, Nagraj Balakrishnan

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Forecasting Multiplicative decomposition
12 seasons
Input Data Seasonal Index Computation Forecast Error analysis
Unseason
Unseason
Seasonali
Month 9 3.280 9 3.245 1.011 1.013 3.239 3.246 3.288 -0.008 0.008 0.000 0.24%
Month 10 3.274 10 3.284 0.997 1.003 3.265 3.258 3.267 0.007 0.007 0.000 0.21%
Month 11 3.264 11 3.314 0.985 0.995 3.282 3.270 3.252 0.012 0.012 0.000 0.36%
Month 12 3.298 12 3.346 0.986 0.984 3.352 3.282 3.229 0.069 0.069 0.005 2.09%
Month 13 3.301 13 3.383 0.976 0.977 3.378 3.293 3.219 0.082 0.082 0.007 2.50%
Month 22 3.559 22 3.528 1.009 1.003 3.549 3.400 3.409 0.150 0.150 0.022 4.21%
Month 23 3.555 23 3.540 1.004 0.995 3.574 3.411 3.393 0.162 0.162 0.026 4.56%
Month 24 3.489 24 3.551 0.983 0.984 3.546 3.423 3.368 0.121 0.121 0.015 3.45%
Month 25 3.472 25 3.547 0.979 0.977 3.553 3.435 3.357 0.115 0.115 0.013 3.31%
Month 26 3.484 26 3.539 0.984 0.986 3.533 3.447 3.399 0.085 0.085 0.007 2.44%
Month 27 3.447 27 3.534 0.975 1.003 3.435 3.459 3.470 -0.023 0.023 0.001 0.67%
Month 28 3.564 28 3.523 1.012 1.013 3.519 3.470 3.514 0.050 0.050 0.002 1.39%
Month 29 3.729 29 3.503 1.065 1.035 3.604 3.482 3.602 0.127 0.127 0.016 3.39%
Month 30 3.640 30 3.476 1.047 1.040 3.500 3.494 3.634 0.006 0.006 0.000 0.17%
Seasonal Ratios
Season 1 Season 2 Season 3 Season 4 Season 5 Season 6 Season 7 Season 8 Season 9
Season 10
Season 11
Season 12
1.005 1.016 1.011 0.997 0.985 98.55%
0.979 0.984 0.975 1.012 1.065 1.047
Average 0.977 0.986 1.003 1.013 1.035 1.040 1.013 1.005 1.013 1.003 0.995 98.40%
Forecasts for future periods
Period
Unseason
alized
forecast
Seasonal
index
Seasonali
zed
forecast
37.000 3.576 0.977 3.495
39.000 3.600 1.003 3.612
41.000 3.624 1.035 3.749
43.000 3.647 1.013 3.695
45.000 3.671 1.013 3.718
Problem 11-44
47.000 3.694 0.995 3.674

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