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Forecasting Exponential smoothing
Input Data Forecast Error Analysis
Period Actual value Forecast Error
Absolute
error
Squared
error
Absolute
% error
Month 1 2.972 2.972
Month 10 3.274 3.235 0.039 0.039 0.002 1.18%
Month 11 3.264 3.253 0.011 0.011 0.000 0.35%
Month 12 3.298 3.258 0.040 0.040 0.002 1.22%
Month 13 3.301 3.276 0.025 0.025 0.001 0.76%
Month 14 3.369 3.287 0.082 0.082 0.007 2.43%
Month 15 3.541 3.324 0.217 0.217 0.047 6.13%
Month 26 3.484 3.502 -0.018 0.018 0.000 0.52%
Month 27 3.447 3.494 -0.047 0.047 0.002 1.36%
Month 28 3.564 3.473 0.091 0.091 0.008 2.56%
Month 29 3.729 3.514 0.215 0.215 0.046 5.77%
Month 30 3.640 3.611 0.029 0.029 0.001 0.81%
Problem 11-43
Forecasting Linear trend analysis
Input Data Forecast Error Analysis
Period
Actual value
(or) Y
Period number
(or) X
Forecast Error
Absolute
error
Squared
error
Absolute
% error
Month 1 2.972 1 3.168 -0.196 0.196 0.038 6.60%
Month 2 2.955 2 3.180 -0.225 0.225 0.051 7.61%
Month 11 3.264 11 3.287 -0.023 0.023 0.001 0.72%
Month 12 3.298 12 3.299 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.04%
Month 13 3.301 13 3.311 -0.010 0.010 0.000 0.31%
Month 14 3.369 14 3.323 0.046 0.046 0.002 1.36%
Month 15 3.541 15 3.335 0.206 0.206 0.042 5.81%
Month 26 3.484 26 3.467 0.017 0.017 0.000 0.50%
Month 27 3.447 27 3.479 -0.032 0.032 0.001 0.92%
Month 28 3.564 28 3.490 0.074 0.074 0.005 2.06%
Month 29 3.729 29 3.502 0.227 0.227 0.051 6.08%
Month 30 3.640 30 3.514 0.126 0.126 0.016 3.45%
Problem 11-43
2.500
2.700
3.100
3.300
3.700
3.900
Trend Analysis
