Unlock document.
This document is partially blurred.
Unlock all pages and 1 million more documents.
Get Access
Forecasting Multiplicative decomposition
12 seasons
Input Data Seasonal Index Computation
Forecast Error analysis
Period
Actual
value (Y)
Time
period (X)
Centered
average
Seasonal
ratio
Seasonal
index
Unseasona
lized value
Unseasona
lized
Forecast
Seasonaliz
ed Forecast
Error
Absolute
error
Squared error
Absolute
% error
Month 1 59042 1 1.306 45211.783 40731.268 53190.902 5851.098 5851.098 34235344.895 9.91%
Month 2 62659 2 1.505 41627.096 40847.757 61485.904 1173.096 1173.096 1376155.205 1.87%
Month 10 58435 10 41979.417 1.392 1.391 42011.750 41779.670 58112.194 322.806 322.806 104203.531 0.55%
Month 11 87705 11 42060.417 2.085 2.024 43324.859 41896.159 84812.800 2892.200 2892.200 8364820.839 3.30%
Month 12 77430 12 42066.958 1.841 1.819 42570.063 42012.648 76416.125 1013.875 1013.875 1027941.667 1.31%
Month 24 78711 24 43745.417 1.799 1.819 43274.341 43410.516 78958.685 -247.685 247.685 61348.030 0.31%
Month 25 56583 25 43762.917 1.293 1.306 43328.789 43527.005 56841.850 -258.850 258.850 67003.479 0.46%
Month 26 66438 26 43713.250 1.520 1.505 44137.650 43643.494 65694.173 743.827 743.827 553278.078 1.12%
Month 27 27766 27 43825.250 0.634 0.610 45512.538 43759.983 26696.812 1069.188 1069.188 1143161.973 3.85%
Month 39 27795 39 44444.917 0.625 0.610 45560.073 45157.851 27549.615 245.385 245.385 60213.776 0.88%
Month 40 30667 40 44553.292 0.688 0.707 43353.242 45274.340 32025.937 -1358.937 1358.937 1846708.930 4.43%
Month 41 31962 41 44661.917 0.716 0.683 46772.612 45390.829 31017.760 944.240 944.240 891588.509 2.95%
Month 42 21096 42 44781.917 0.471 0.449 46980.001 45507.318 20434.703 661.297 661.297 437313.067 3.13%
Slope 116.489
Seasonal Ratios
Season 1 Season 2 Season 3 Season 4 Season 5 Season 6 Season 7 Season 8 Season 9
Season 10
Season 11 Season 12
1.293 1.520 0.634 0.720 0.675 0.459 0.440 0.535 0.563 1.383 1.974 181.67%
Forecasts for future periods
Period
Unseasona
lized
forecast
Seasonal
index
Seasonaliz
ed forecast
49.000 46322.741 1.306 60492.798
Problem 11-39
52.000 46672.208 0.707 33014.754
53.000 46788.697 0.683 31972.992
56.000 47138.164 0.512 24140.626
57.000 47254.653 0.520 24594.999
60.000 47604.121 1.819 86586.365
0
30000
40000
50000
90000
100000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Value
Period
Actual vs. Forecast
Actual value (Y)
Seasonalized Forecast
