224
20. A survey of registered voters asked the question “Do you support legislation to ban
smoking in all public facilities?” 62% agreed, 30% did not agree, and 8% had no opinion.
Then each person was asked “Will you vote for Joe Vader (a candidate who supports the ban)
in the upcoming election?” Of those who agreed with the smoking ban, 80% said that they
would vote for Joe Vader, 7% said they would not, and 13% said they did not know who they
would vote for. Of those who disagreed with the ban, 25% said they would vote for Joe
Vader, 52% said they would not vote for him, and 23% said they did not know who they
would vote for. Of those who had no opinion on the ban, 18% said they would vote for Joe,
28% said they would not vote for him, and 54% said they did not know who they would vote
for. If a person votes for Joe Vader, what is the probability that they support the smoking
ban? If a person votes for Joe Vader, what is the probability that they have no opinion on the
smoking ban? If a person does not vote for Joe, what is the probability that they do not
support the smoking ban?
()
(|) ()( )( )
PA V
PAV PA V PD V PN V
()
(|) ()( )( )
PN V
PN V PA V PD V PN V
()
(| ) ()()( )
PD NV
PD NV P A NV P D NV P N NV