Chapter 03 – Managerial Decision Making
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Example 3.1 – Uncertainty and Risk: A decision made with certainty is a decision made with complete
information – for example, a manager who decides to buy a new computer for the office knows exactly
how much that computer will cost. A decision made with uncertainty is a decision made with little or no
information – for example, a manager who decides to design and manufacture an entirely new product,
Example 3.2 – Rational decision-making: Rational decision-making may seem to be straightforward – a
relatively easy process that most people use instinctively. But researchers Thomas Turrentine and Ken-
about gas consumption and cost savings when we are at the dealership shopping for a new car.4
Example 3.3 – Best decision: Sometimes, coming up with the “best” decision involves a willingness to
simply admit failure. Coca Cola’s CEO and Chairman, Neville Isdell, is candid about the fact that suc-
cess is often built on failed decisions. At Coke’s annual meeting in 2006, Isdell told investors, “You will
Example 3.4 – Groupthink: Is the evening news an example of groupthink at work? According to Brian
Lowry, a reporter for the Daily Variety, journalists propagate groupthink every time they latch onto a sto-
Example 3.5 – Problems with group decision-making: Jared Diamond, the professor of Geography at
the University of California, Los Angeles, who wrote “Guns, Germs, and Steel”, tells a story about the
Easter Islanders, a Polynesian people who settled a heavily forested island. Over time, the group learned
the benefits of chopping down trees to make everything from shelters to canoes. Unfortunately, they con-
3 Connerly, B. “Uncertainty and risk management: What to do about Black Swans?” Forbes, February 20, 2013.
4 Turrentine, T.S. & Kurani, K.S. “Car buyers and fuel economy?” Energy Policy; Feb2007, Vol. 35 Issue 2, p1213-1223.