Period Demand Forecast
10 248
11 370
Period Demand Forecast
10 248 252.00
a = 0.25
11 370 251.00
1-a = 0.75
Month Demand Forecast Forecast Absolute Absolute % MFE = -2
Error Deviation Error MAD = 15
Jan-19 119 MAPE = 0.15
Feb-19 72
Mar-19 113
Apr-19 82 101 -19 19 0.24
Month Demand Forecast Forecast Absolute Absolute % MFE = 1
Error Deviation Error MAD = 14
Jan-19 119 MAPE = 0.13
Feb-19 72
Mar-19 113 91 22 22 0.20
Apr-19 82 97 -15 15 0.18
Month Demand Forecast Forecast Absolute Absolute %
a = 0.3
Error Deviation Error
1-a = 0.7
Jan-19 119 100 MFE = -3.34
Feb-19 72 105.70 -33.70 33.70 0.47 MAD = 17.07
Mar-19 113 95.59 17.41 17.41 0.15 MAPE = 0.18
Apr-19 82 100.81 -18.81 18.81 0.23
Period Demand Forecast Forecast Absolute Absolute % MFE = -7
Error Deviation Error MAD = 21
1221 MAPE = 0.12
2247 221 26 26 0.11
3228 247 -19 19 0.08
Period Demand Forecast Forecast Absolute Absolute % Weight on Period t-3: 0.25
Error Deviation Error Weight on Period t-2: 0.35
1221 Weight on Period t-1: 0.4
2247
3228 MFE = -19
4233 233 0 0 0.00 MAD = 24
5240 235 5 5 0.02 MAPE = 0.15
0
50
250
300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Period
Plot of Demand vs. Forecasts
a = 0.7
1-a = 0.3
c. c. c.
1-a = 0.5
Mar 220
Apr 2240 Forcast c.
May 1790 2000 2000 700
a = 0.5
Jun 4270 1417 1895 2354 1895 459
1-a = 0.5
b = 0.3
1-b = 0.7
Month Sales ($) Unadjusted Trend Adjusted Table 9.12
a = 0.3
Forecast Factor Forecast values
b = 0.6
Jan-15 $230,000 $220,000 $10,000 $230,000 $228,462
Feb-15 $230,000 $223,000 $5,800 $228,800 $233,287
Mar-15 $240,000 $225,100 $3,580 $228,680 $238,112
Month Period Demand Unadjusted Trend Adjusted
a = 0.25
Forecast Factor Forecast
b = 0.4
Jan-18 1 1200 1100 60
Feb-18 2 1400 1125 46 1171
Aug-18 8 2022 1749 124 1873
Sep-18 9 1888 1817 101 1919
Oct-18 10 1938 1835 68 1903
Nov-18 11 1988 1861 51 1912
Dec-18 12 1839 1893 43 1936
Jan-19 13 1684 1879 21 1900
Jul-19 19 2877 2264 117 2380
Aug-19 20 2687 2417 131 2548
Sep-19 21 2492 2485 106 2590