Hence E[ˆ
Z] = 1
NNZ =Z. Also, since ˆ
Z is the sum of Nunbiased variables
divided by N, we know (Chapter 3) that its variance will be σ2
w
N, where
E“N
i=1
f(xi)w(xi)#=
i=1 Zf(x)φ(x)
q(x)q(x)dx
=NZ ·E[f(x)]
However, for finite number of N, this does not mean that although the
mean values of the numerator and denominator are NZ ·E[f(x)] and NZ,
14.7. Let p(x) = N(x|0, σ2
1I). Choose the proposal distribution for importance
sampling as
q(x) = N(x|0, σ2
2I).
The weights are computed as
w(x) = p(x)
q(x).
If w(0) is the weight at x=0, then the ratio w(x)
w(0)is given by
w(x)
w(0)= exp 1
2 σ2
1−σ2
2
σ2
1σ2
2
l
X
i=1
x2
i!.
Observe that even for very good match between q(x) and p(x) (σ2
1‘σ2
2),
for large values of l, the values of the weights can change significantly, due
to the exponential dependence.
Solution: We have that
l
Y
i