34 PART 1 Principles
overturned. In fact, people may start with a presumption they really do not believe, just
to get the argumentation going. Without a presumption to work from (say, the presump-
tion of innocence), they would not know who has to start the argument and who wins in
the absence of clear superiority of one argument over another. The U.S. criminal law pre-
Part of understanding the reasonableness of argumentation is examination of pre-
sumptions. Because presumption is more or less arbitrary, it is possible for one position
in the discussion to claim presumption and use it as a tool to force others to defend their
position. In a university class on argumentation, a student said, “There has never been
Probabilities. As starting points of argument, probabilities consist of commonly held be-
liefs about what is likely to happen, what is ordinary, and what is to be expected. Such
beliefs can be used as premises for arguments. After extensive observations, we hold pow-
erful concepts of such probabilities as the times of the tides, the movements of the planets,
the changing of the seasons, or the behavior of matter under various conditions. We reason
from biological probabilities such as what plants will survive in certain climates, how ani-
Like presumptions, probabilities vary from one sphere to another. Many hold the
probability that human beings will seek to avoid death, but some spheres hold that death
in a holy cause is desirable.
Where presumptions may be points that are taken for the sake of argument without
solid proof of their validity, probabilities get arguments started because they are likely
Stephen Toulmin says that when people qualify claims, they “authorize ... hear-
ers to put more or less faith in the assertions ... treat them as correspondingly more or
less trustworthy” ( The Uses of Argument 91). Because argument functions within uncer-
tainty, there is always some degree of qualification on claims. Sometimes you use words:
likely, almost certainly, probably, maybe. Sometimes you use numbers: 90% chance, p < .05,
three to one odds. No matter how you express these probabilities, they communicate the
force with which an argument is advanced, the degree of faith you authorize others to
place on your claims.
The reasonableness of arguments, then, necessarily involves an examination of the
probabilities on which they rest and the qualifications with which they are presented. A
point of criticism is to ask the basis of the probability statement.
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