CHAPTER 15 Argumentation in Business 247
business argumentation. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, appointed to explain the
causes of the financial crisis, released its report on January 27, 2011—while acknowledging
that the recession was not yet over. Early on, the report recognizes the inevitability of booms
and busts, “While the business cycle cannot be repealed, a crisis of this magnitude need not
have occurred” (xvii). Having recognized the regularity of ups and downs, the commission-
ers wondered what made it so severe this time, and their answer was an excessive faith in
the continued rise in housing prices alongside the emergence of a global economy. Quoting
But even in the face of the probability of cycles in business activity, there is also a
probability of a long-term upward trend. Frequently noted is the fact that various eco-
nomic measures, such as those by Dow Jones, show a steady rise in value since, say, the
end of World War II. Even factoring in the years of bust, a steady upward line in the price
of securities can be shown. Thus, the probability is that, in the long term, values will rise.
People invest in individual retirement policies with the idea that when they retire, their
funds will have increased in value sufficient to support them. Unless, of course, they retire
just as the economy goes down once more.
Upward Economic Movement. Businesses predicate arguments about their success on
comparisons with the past quarter or year or more. Because of the probability of a con-
tinuing rise in the economy, the expectation is that successful companies will report more
earnings, more profits, more shareholder value, more command of the market, more sales,
and so on than in the past. In 2011, IBM could report significant growth in its business: it
is the largest technology and consulting employer in the world with over 400,000 employ-
ees; it does business in 170 different countries; it offers complex infrastructure, hosting,
and consulting services; a portfolio of middleware for collaboration, predictive analytics,
Probability of Change. Along with the probability of booms and busts, and the long-
term growth in business, is the probability of change . Jeffrey Garten says the world is now
experiencing extraordinary changes in technology and globalization that have “created a
level of competition that will lead to new categories of winners and losers and for a trans-
formation in how companies are organized and led” (19). We are now, he says, in the third
such revolution. He labels England between 1750 and 1840 and the United States between
the 1860s and the 1920s as the Industrial Revolutions. Now, we are in the information,
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