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Chapter 17
LEARNING FROM THE PAST; LOOKING TO THE FUTURE
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Chapter 17 Learning Objectives
After completing this chapter, students will know:
• What currently is most important in management skills
• How the public will change in the future
• What Forecasting International rates as the most powerful force now changing
law enforcement
• What the boiled frog phenomenon is
• How change should be viewed
Chapter 17 Outline
Introduction
Megatrends—Looking Back and to the Future
Law Enforcement for the Future
A Basic Change in Needed Management Skills
A Changing Law Enforcement Officer and Public to Be Served
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Implications for Policing
Longer Life Expectancies
Assessment
Implications for Policing
Continuing Urbanization
Use of Force
Resolving Conflict and Minimizing Use of Force
Management of Mass Demonstrations
Violent Crime
Hot Spots Enforcement
Futuristics
Basic Principles of Futuristics
Fundamental Premises and Goals
The Futures Working Group
Other Futures Envisioned
Change Revisited
The Boiled Frog Phenomenon
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Chapter 17 Summary
Technical competence used to be most important. Now and in the years ahead, people
skills are most important. The public to be served will include more two-income families,
more single-parent families, more senior citizens and more minorities. The educational
and economic gap will increase, with those at the bottom becoming more disadvantaged
and dissatisfied.
Forecasting International rates technology as the most powerful of the many forces now
changing law enforcement. The top 10 trends identified by Forecasting International as
Critical issues included in the Motorola/PERF Critical Issues Series are police use of
force, strategies for resolving conflict and minimizing use of force, police management of
mass demonstrations, violent crime in America, hot spots enforcement, patrol-level
response to a suicide bomb threat, police planning for an influenza pandemic, local
immigration enforcement, and violent crime and the economic crisis.
Three challenges law enforcement managers faced before the 21st century continue as
major challenges in the 21st century: drugs, gangs and terrorism. In planning to meet the
The boiled frog phenomenon suggests that managers must pay attention to change in their
environment and adapt—or perish. Change is inevitable. View it as opportunity.
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Chapter 17 Key Terms
boiled frog phenomenon based on a classic experiment, suggests that managers
must pay attention to change in their environment and adapt—or perish.
Classroom Discussion Questions
1. Consider the politics of law enforcement related to terrorism and homeland
security. What do you believe the future holds for law enforcement in these areas?
How do you see policing changing?
2. Have students discuss what they believe are the organizational realities for police
in the coming decade.
6. Which of the issues discussed in the Motorola/PERF Critical Issues Series is most
important? Least important?
7. What trends do you foresee in the future of policing?
8. How far into the future should predictions be made?
9. Why is studying the past important in preparing for the future?
Student Activities
1. Ask local police managers what trends they foresee in the future of policing.
2. Ask police managers what they see for the future development of their law
enforcement agency. Will there be more use of technology and computerization in
records and in providing information? Will they take greater advantage of the
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Challenge Seventeen
Your first year as the police chief of the Greenfield Police Department has been a
resounding success. When you arrived the department was a traditional crime-fighting
organization with a military command structure. Now the department is well on its way
to implementing a community policing strategy and a participative management
structure. You are confident the department’s mission is in line with the current needs of
the Greenfield community.
You cross your feet on your desk; clasp your hands behind your head; and take a deep,
Challenge Seventeen Questions and Suggested Answers
1. Should police leaders plan to make major changes in policing strategies every ten
years?
No. Change should be a continual transition. Police departments should anticipate and
2. Anticipate some major changes in the population that will affect American policing in
the near future.
The population is aging. The elderly will require more police services including
emergency medical assistance and protection from predators. Police departments may
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3. Will the Internet affect local law enforcement?
More than ever before, criminal activity spans numerous jurisdictions. The Internet
has created a lucrative criminal environment that reaches around the world. The
4. How will the trend towards private security affect policing?
Private security firms and police departments have not always enjoyed the best of
relationships. The days of private security being synonymous with police wannabes
5. The rapid pace of technology will continue to change the way we police. Can you
recognize ways technology is currently changing American policing?
The proliferation of inexpensive, high-quality cameras has replaced police officers on
the street. Police departments are using cameras to monitor traffic and identify
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6. What traits come to mind when you envision a police leader of the future?
The complexity of society will require a leader who gets every bit of creativity out of
his or her officers. No one can predict what problems the police will face in ten years,
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