CHAPTER 6: Discussion Questions and Problems
1. Differentiate the following terms/concepts:
a. Miscalibration and excessive optimism
b. Better-than-average effect and illusion of control
c. Self-attribution bias and confirmation bias
d. Pros and cons of overconfidence
Research shows that predictions about the future tend to be more optimistic when the
2. Is miscalibration greater for easy questions or hard questions? Is it greater
when we look at 50% confidence ranges or 98% confidence ranges?
3. Provide an example where someone can be both excessively optimistic
and miscalibrated at the same time.
Many examples could be provided. To repeat the one from the chapter, let’s suppose you
4. Overconfidence does not quickly dissipate via learning because of the
existence of contributing biases. Explain.
Self-attribution bias, the tendency for people to attribute successes or good outcomes to
their own abilities, while blaming failures on circumstances beyond their control, can
5. In 2007 the New England Patriots (an American football team) had a
banner year winning all 16 regular season games. In these 16 games their
points were: 38, 38, 38, 34, 34, 48, 49, 52, 24, 56, 31, 27, 34, 20, 28, and 38.
Despite this obvious success, their fans were still a bit overconfident going
into the playoffs. The consensus among fans was that they would average
50 points per game in the playoffs. Plus their fans were 95% sure that they
would be within five points of this number (45 to 55). Illustrate the
dimensions of their overconfidence. (For the purpose of this question,
assume the Patriots participated in four playoff games.)
As in question 3, both miscalibration and excessive optimism are present. To illustrate,