Rugman and Collinson, International Business, 6th edition, Instructor’s Manual
C. Determination of the exchange rate
1. There are five major groups that are active participants in foreign exchange markets:
traders/brokers, speculators, hedgers, arbitrageurs and governments. Foreign exchange
traders work in commercial banks where they buy and sell foreign currency for their
2. Exchange rates are determined by the activities of the five groups discussed above, as
well as through purchasing power parity (PPP) and interest rate parity (Fisher effect).
3. In order to relate interest rates to exchange rates, it is first necessary to relate interest
rates to inflation. This is done through the Fisher effect, which describes the
relationship between inflation and interest rates in two countries. There are three key
4. The link between interest rates and exchange rates is explained by the international
Fisher effect (IFE), which holds that the interest rate differential is an unbiased
predictor of future changes in the spot exchange rate. So, if nominal interest rates in
Germany are higher than those in the United States, the value of the Euro will fall by
that interest rate differential in the future. This differential is also important in
5. Other factors also help determine exchange rates. These include confidence in the
currency and technical factors such as the release of national economic statistics,
seasonal demands for a currency, the slight strengthening of a currency followed by a