Chapter 11
Trade Policy in Developing Countries
◼ Chapter Organization
Import-Substituting Industrialization
The Infant Industry Argument
Promoting Manufacturing Through Protectionism
Case Study: Mexico Abandons Import-Substituting Industrialization
Results of Favoring Manufacturing: Problems of Import-Substituting Industrialization
Trade Liberalization since 1985
Trade and Growth: Takeoff in Asia
Box: India’s Boom
Summary
◼ Chapter Overview
The final two chapters on international trade, Chapters 11 and 12, discuss trade policy considerations in
the context of specific issues. Chapter 11 focuses on the use of trade policy in developing countries and
Chapter 12 focuses on new controversies in trade policy.
Although there is great diversity among developing countries, they share some common policy concerns.
These include the development of domestic manufacturing industries, the uneven degree of development
within the country, and the desire to foster economic growth and improve living standards. This chapter
discusses both the successful and unsuccessful trade policy strategies that have been applied by developing
countries in attempts to address these concerns.
Many developing countries pose the creation of a significant manufacturing sector as a key goal of economic
development. One commonly voiced argument for protecting manufacturing industries is the infant industry
argument, which states that developing countries have a potential comparative advantage in manufacturing
and can realize that potential through an initial period of protection. This argument assumes market failure
in the form of imperfect capital markets or the existence of externalities in production. Such a market
failure makes the social return to production higher than the private return. Without some government
support, the argument goes, the amount of investment that will occur in this industry will be less than
socially optimal levels. Government support can theoretically raise investment up to the socially optimal
level. Given these arguments, many nations have attempted import-substituting industrialization, where
government support is focused on those industries that compete directly with imports. In the 1950s and
1960s, the strategy was quite popular and did lead to a dramatic reduction in imports in some countries. The
overall result, though, was not a success. The infant industry argument did not always hold, as protection
could let young industries survive but could not make them efficient. The methods used to protect industries
60 Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, Tenth Edition
were often complex and overlapped across industries, in some cases leading to exorbitantly high rates of
protection. Furthermore, protection often led to an inefficiently small scale of production within countries
by creating competition over monopoly profits that would not have existed without protection. By the late
1980s, most countries had shifted away from the strategy, and the chapter includes a case study of Mexico’s
change from import substitution to a more open strategy.
Since 1985, many developing countries have abandoned import substitution and pursued (sometimes
aggressively) trade liberalization. The chapter notes two sides of the experience. On the one hand, trade
has gone up considerably and changed in character. Developing countries export far more of their GDP
than prior to liberalization, and more of it is in manufacturing as opposed to primary commodities. On the
other hand, the growth experience of these countries has not been universally good, and it is difficult to tell
if the success stories are due to trade or due to reforms that came at the same time as liberalization. While
countries such as the “Asian Tigers,” China and India, have experienced spectacular rates of growth
following trade liberalization, only part of this growth can be attributed to trade reform. Furthermore,
countries such as Brazil and Mexico that have also moved toward freer trade have not experienced the same
rates of economic growth.
◼ Answers to Textbook Problems
1. The countries that seem to benefit most from international trade include many of the countries of the
Pacific Rim: South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, and others. Though
the experience of each country is somewhat different, most of these countries employed some kind
of infant industry protection during the beginning phases of their development but then withdrew
protection relatively quickly after industries became competitive on world markets. Concerning
2. The Japanese example gives pause to those who believe that protectionism is always disastrous.
However, Japanese success does not demonstrate that protectionist trade policy was responsible for
3. a. The initial high costs of production would justify infant industry protection if the costs to the
society during the period of protection were less than the future stream of benefits from a mature,
low-cost industry.
b. An individual firm does not have an incentive to bear development costs itself for an entire
industry when these benefits will accrue to other firms. The first firm will not factor in how its
Chapter 11 Trade Policy in Developing Countries 61
4. India ceased being a colony of Britain in 1948; thus, its dramatic break from all imports in favor of
homemade products following WWII was part of a political break from colonialism. In fact, the
preference for homemade clothing production over British-produced textiles was one of the early
5. In some countries, the infant industry argument simply did not appear to work well. Such protection
will not create a competitive manufacturing sector if there are basic reasons why a country does not
have a competitive advantage in a particular area. This was particularly the case in manufacturing
where many low-income countries lack skilled labor, entrepreneurs, and the level of managerial