b. In order to solve a problem using the two-state option model, first draw a price tree containing
both the current price of the underlying asset and the underlying asset’s possible values at the
time of the option’s expiration. Next, draw a similar tree for the option, designating what its value
will be at expiration given either of the two possible stock price movements.
Call option price with a strike of $1,380
The price of gold is $1,280 per ounce today. If the price rises to $1,445, the company will exercise
its call option for $1,380 and receive a payoff of $65 at expiration. If the price of gold falls to
$1,130, the company will not exercise its call option, and the firm will receive no payoff at
expiration. If the price of gold rises, its return over the period is 12.89 percent (= $1,445/$1,280
– 1). If the price of gold falls, its return over the period is –11.72 percent (= $1,130/$1,280 – 1).
Use the following expression to determine the risk-neutral probability of a rise in the price of
gold: