506 Instructor’s Manual
Managing Financial and Political Risk
P18-15. Suppose that the spot exchange rate follows a random walk, which means that the best
forecast of the spot rate at some future date is simply its current value. Now suppose that
a U.S. firm owes €1 million to a Spanish supplier. If the U.S. firm wants to minimize the
expected dollar cost of paying its Spanish supplier (without regard to currency risk), de-
scribe the circumstances under which the firm will or will not enter into a forward con-
tract to hedge its exposure.
P18-16. Classic City Exporters (CCE) recently sold a large shipment of sporting equipment to a
Swiss company—the goods will be sold in Zurich. The sale was denominated in Swiss
francs (SF) and was worth SF500,000. Delivery of the sporting goods and payment by
the Swiss buyer are due to occur in six months. The current spot exchange rate is
$0.6002/SF (SF1.6661/$), and the six-month forward rate is $0.6020/SF (SF1.6611/$).
What risk would CCE run if it remained unhedged, and how could it hedge that risk with
a forward contract? Assuming that the actual exchange rate in six months is $0.5500/SF
(SF1.8182/$), compute the profit or loss—and state which it is—CCE would experience
if it had chosen to remain unhedged.
A18-16. If it remains unhedged, CCE runs the risk that the franc will depreciate against the dollar
hedging with the forward contract.
P18-17. A British firm will receive $1 million from a U.S. customer in three months. The firm is
considering two strategies to eliminate its foreign exchange exposure. The first strategy
is to pledge the $1 million as collateral for a three-month loan from a U.S. bank at 4 per-
cent interest. The U.K. firm will then convert the proceeds of the loan to pounds at the
spot rate. When the loan is due, the firm will pay the $1 million balance due by handing
its U.S. receivable over to the bank. This strategy allows the U.K. firm to “monetize” its
receivable immediately. The spot exchange rate is 0.6550 pounds per dollar.
The second strategy is to enter a forward contract at an exchange rate of 0.6450
pounds per dollar. This ensures that the U.K. firm will receive £645,000 in three months.
If the firm wanted to monetize this payment immediately, it could take out a three-month
loan from a U.K. bank at 8 percent, pledging the proceeds of the forward contract as col-
lateral.
Which of these strategies should the firm follow?