Suppose the value of operations, available funds for distribution, and debt increase at 10% a year. Here is the impact of repurchases versus dividends.
Growth in value of operations: 10%
Growth in distributions: 10%
Growth in debt: 10%
Stock prices over time:
12/31/2019 12/30 12/31 12/30 12/31 12/30 12/31 12/30 12/31
Value of operations $1,937.5 $2,131.3 $2,131.3 $2,344.4 $2,344.4 $2,578.8 $2,578.8 $2,836.7 $2,836.7
+ Value of ST investments 50.0 55.0 0.0 60.5 0.0 66.6 0.0 73.2 0.0
Total intrinsic value of firm $1,987.5 $2,186.3 $2,131.3 $2,404.9 $2,344.4 $2,645.4 $2,578.8 $2,909.9 $2,836.7
− Debt 387.5 426.3 426.3 468.9 468.9 515.8 515.8 567.3 567.3
− Preferred stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Intrinsic value of equity $1,600.0 $1,760.0 $1,705.0 $1,936.0 $1,875.5 $2,129.6 $2,063.1 $2,342.6 $2,269.4
÷ Number of shares 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Intrinsic price per share $16.00 $17.60 $17.05 $19.36 $18.76 $21.30 $20.63 $23.43 $22.69
Dividend per share $0.55 $0.61 $0.67 $0.73
12/31/19 12/30 12/31 12/30 12/31 12/30 12/31 12/30 12/31
Value of operations $1,937.5 $2,131.3 $2,131.3 $2,344.4 $2,344.4 $2,578.8 $2,578.8 $2,836.7 $2,836.7
+ Value of ST investments 50.0 55.0 0.0 60.5 0.0 66.6 0.0 73.2 0.0
Data for figure.
End of Month 12/31/19 12/30/20 12/31/20 12/30/21 12/31/21 12/30/22 12/31/22 12/30/23 12/31/23
Price per share (Dividends) $16.00 $17.60 $17.05 $19.36 $18.76 $21.30 $20.63 $23.43 $22.69
Price per share (Repurchase) $16.00 $17.60 $17.60 $19.98 $19.98 $22.69 $22.69 $25.77 $25.77