b. Here is the basic DCF equation for a constant growth stock:
If growth were expected to remain constant, and we had a good estimate of the rate
the marginal investor was using, then we could easily complete the formula and
obtain an estimate of rs. For example, if the constant growth rate was 10%, then in
our example rs would be $1.10/$40 + 10% = 12.75%.
For a non-constant growth stock, solve for rs in the following equation, where gt is
the growth rate in each year t and the g’s vary over time:
and printout.
The stock price, P0, is obviously known, as is the last dividend, D0. However, the
estimate of future growth, gt, is not known. As the model printout shows, historical
growth rates vary substantially from year to year, and they also vary depending on
how they are calculated. Moreover, historical growth rates are generally not good
predictors of future growth, so there is no good reason to think that investors should
or do rely heavily on historical rates when they estimate their intrinsic stock values.
Empirical research indicates that while security analysts’ forecast of future growth
are not very good, they are still better than forecasts based just on historical data.
Answers and Solutions: 11 – 4