MONTH
ACTUAL SALES ($000) MONTH
ACTUAL
SALES
MONTH
ACTUAL
SALES
1345 1345 13 375
2350 2350 14 382
3355 3355 15 390
12 370 12 370 24 408
13 375
14 382
15 390
Table 6-12, Twenty-four Months of Actual
Data
TABLE 6-12, Twenty-four Months of Actual Data
Page 18
TABLE 6-13 Pro forma Balance Sheet Using Percentage of Sales
Total Sales
Current Year
$275,000
Percentage
of Sales
(%)
Forecast
Sales Next
Year
$350,000
Assets
Current Assets
Cash 5,694$
Accounts Receivable 19,662
Total Fixed Assets 31,051$
Total Assets 59,788$
Liabilities and Owner’s Equity
Current Liabilities
Basic Data Fig 6-2
TIME TREND
PERIOD SALES LINE
0246.8841
JAN YR 1 1 245 247.8967
FEB 2 244 248.9093
MAR 3 250 249.9219
MAR 15 258 262.0732
APR 16 267 263.0858
MAY 17 273 264.0984
JUN 18 278 265.111
JUN 30 277.2623
JUL 31 278.2749
AUG 32 279.2875
SEP 33 280.3001
OCT 34 281.3128
NOV 35 282.3254
DEC 36 283.338
Page 20
SALES CHART
Page 21
260
270
280
290
SALES CHART
PR1
W1= 0.2
W2= 0.3
W3= 0.5 a=0.2
Month
Actual
Sales
3 Month
Mov Avg
Absolute
Deviation
Weighted
Mov Avg
Absolute
Deviation
Exponential
Smoothing
Absolute
Deviation
January Yr1 35,645$ 35,000.00$
February 35,456 35,129.00 327.00
March 31,270 35,194.40 3,924.40
April 32,129 34,123.67$ 1,994.67 33,400.80$ 1,271.80 34,409.52 2,280.52
Jane White’s Sales Data and Forecasts
Page 22
PR3
Table for Problem 3
a=0.05 a= 0.60
PERIOD DATA Forecast
Absolute
Deviation
Forecast
Absolute
Deviation
132 30.00 30.00
214 30.10 16.10 31.20 17.20
341 29.30 11.71 20.88 20.12
PR4
Table for Problem 4
Year
Time
Period (x)
Actual
Demand
(y)
x2xy
2002 123 123
2003 224 448
2004 331 993
2005 428 16 112
Page 24
PR6
Table 6-11. Actual Sales Data
Solution to Problem 6
W1= 3
W2= 5
W3= 9
Time
Period
Actual
Sales
($000)
Forecast
Weighted
Moving
Average
Absolute
Deviation
1445
2478
3525
4660 497.06 162.94
5570 588.18 18.18
6600 588.53 11.47
Page 25
PR7
Table 6-11. Actual Sales Data SLOPE 27.69091
Solution to Problem 7 INTERCEPT 445.0364
Time
Period x
Actual
Sales
($000) y
x2 xy
Time Period
x
Actual
Sales
($000) y
1445 1 445 0
2478 4 956 1 445
3525 9 1,575 2 478
4660 16 2,640 3 525
Page 26
Solution to Problem 8
Actual This
Year
Pro forma
Next year
Sales 200,000$ 240,000$
Cost of Goods Sold 140,000 168,000
Gross Profit 60,000$ 72,000$
Operating Expenses
Rent 18,000 18,540
Income Statement for current and next year
Slope= 1.92
Intercept= 345.20
MONTH
Actual
Sales
Regression
Forecast
Seasonal
Ratio
0
345.20
1345
347.12 0.99
2350
349.03 1.00
3355
350.95 1.01
4360
352.87 1.02
354.79 1.03
356.70 1.01
358.62 1.00
360.54 0.98
362.46 0.96
364.37 0.97
366.29 0.99
368.21 1.00
370.13 1.01
372.04 1.03
373.96 1.04
16 380
375.88 1.01
17 375
377.79 0.99
18 368
379.71 0.97
19 363
381.63 0.95
20 373
383.55 0.97
21 380
385.46 0.99
22 391
387.38 1.01
23 397
389.30 1.02
24 408
391.22 1.04
25
393.13
395.05
396.97
398.89
400.80
30
402.72
31
404.64
406.56
408.47
410.39
412.31
414.23
416.14
38
418.06
39
419.98
421.89
423.81
Solution to problem 9a, UsingTwenty-four Months
of Actual Data
Regression Forecast
431.48
46
433.40
47
435.32
48
437.23
410
420
ACTUAL SALES ($000)
November December January February March April
Sales 15,000$ 17,000$ 15,000$ 20,000$ 25,000$
Current Month Collection at 20% of Sales 3,000 3,400 3,000 4,000 5,000
Accounts Payable (AP) Previous Month 4,500$ 5,500$ 5,200$
Total Payments 4,500$ 5,500$ 5,200$
Monthly Cash Payments
Answer to Problem 10
Actual Sales
Pro Forma Sales and Cash Receipts
Monthly Cash Receipts
Table 6-12, answers to question 11.
Total Sales
Current Year
$275,000
Percentage
of Sales
(%)
Forecast
Sales Next
Year
$350,000
Assets
Current Assets
Total Fixed Assets 31,051$ 11.29 39,519$
Total Assets 59,788$ 21.74 76,094$
Liabilities and Owner‘s Equity
TIME TREND
YEAR PERIOD SALES FORECAST LINE
YEAR 0 247
Jan-01 1 245 248
Feb-01 2 244 249
Mar-01 3 250 250
Mar-02 15 258 257 262
Apr-02 16 267 253 263
May-02 17 273 258 264
Jun-02 18 278 266 265
Jul-02 19 260 273 266
Aug-02 20 256 270 267
Sep-02 21 255 265 268
Oct-02 22 270 257 269
Nov-02 23 275 260 270
Dec-02 24 283 267 271
245
250
255
260
290
Sales in Units