CHAPTER 12
Decision Making
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After reading this chapter, the student will have achieved the following objectives:
• Be able to define decision making
• Understand the basis for decision making rules of criminal justice practitioners
KEY TERMS
ah yes! decision maker
analytical style
bounded rationality
clinical decisions
conceptual style
consequences of alternative
consistency in theory
cybernetic decision model
decision rules
discretion
external politics
garbage can theory
individualized decisions
internal politics
judgment
mini/max criteria
numerical weights
organizational culture
performance programs
prediction
probability estimates
quantitative decision
ratifier
satisfycing
self-correcting decision
sequentialists
simplifier
LECTURE OUTLINE
I. Decision-Making in Organizations
A. Decision-making is one of the most important concerns for managers in all
organizations.
2. Managers also make decisions on budget allocation, policies and operating
procedures.
B. Subordinates are also part of the decision-making process in organizations.
1. Subordinates regularly decide what policies and procedures to implement in a
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2. An example is when legislatures pass very tough sentencing policies calling for
lengthy prison sentences, in spite of criminal justice administrators warning
that prison populations would increase beyond current capacities.
II. What Is a Decision?
A. A theory or broad framework guides most decisions.
1. Complex decisions involve sophisticated theories.
2. Goals in the decision-making process are specific to each decision.
B. Decision-making involves consideration of:
1. Alternatives
3. Information about the subject of the decision
C. Availability of information does not always produce a decision.
2. Many decisions are made based upon clinical decision rules such as:
a. Education
b. Training
c. Experience
D. At the other extreme are quantitative decision rules involving the assignment of
numerical weights to pieces of information which, when summed, dictate the
decision.
E. The processing of information according to decision rules produces outcomes.
F. In a cybernetic, or self-correcting, decision model the outcome of prior decisions
provides feedback to influence future decisions through its influence on:
1. Theory
3. Information
III. Decision-Making Theory: From Rationality to the Garbage Can
A. Increasingly rational decisions in criminal justice depend on:
1. Increasing consistency in theory
3. Improving quality of information
B. Scholars of decision making once believed the process to be:
2. Capable of producing optimal results or “correct” answers for given situations
C. March and Simon posited that decisions were made on the basis of bounded
rationality.
1. Many decisions in criminal justice are characterized by volumes of information.
2. We must recognize that the information:
3. Satisfycing—the attainment of acceptable rather than optimal results—thus
becomes a useful concept in criminal justice.
D. The analogy of the garbage can describes one model of decision making.
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1. Decision makers handle problems of ambiguity by developing sets of
performance programs, or standardized methods of responding to problems.
2. Organizations develop a repertoire of responses—a garbage can of ready-made
answers.
4. Thus, the garbage can analogy has its appeal as a means of understanding some
decision-making processes in criminal justice.
E. Stability and routinization of decision-making are products of bounded rationality.
F. Bounded rationality also recognizes the cognitive limitations of individual decision
makers.
1. Decision makers deal with multiple goals and possibly conflicting theories.
3. Consequently, they can effectively handle only small quantities of information.
G. The garbage can analogy may not always apply to criminal justice settings, however,
Sudnow points out its usefulness.
1. Public Defender Offices often utilize the garbage can decision-making process
2. Waegel found that police investigations may benefit from the garbage can
philosophy when looking to solve a string of burglaries or thefts, matching crime
similarities.
H. Organization culture and decision making
1. Satisfycing and garbage can decision-making are both bounded by organizational
culture.
2. Organizational culture is defined as ready-made answers to problems, or a set of
basic assumptions and beliefs shared by organizational members that are taken for
granted.
I. Politics and decision making
1. Internal politics: The influences caused by conflicting individuals and groups
within the organization.
2. External politics: The influence that outside parties have on the organization’s
mission and the direction the organization takes.
a. Departments of correction have been under intense pressure to respond to
perceptions of an ever-growing crime problem.
b. Legislatures create pressure on correctional institution by controlling budget
allocations.
IV. Characteristics of Decision Makers
A. Wilkins identified four types of decision makers
1. Sequentialist decision makers
a. Use their experience to determine what information is most important
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b. Consider items one at a time in a sequential fashion; based on their view of
what item is most important.
2. Ah yes! decision maker
4. The ratifier waits for comments from others, then agrees with them.
B. Decision makers in criminal justice also often make certain assumptions about the
people involved.
C. Decision makers often structure their data by resorting to precedent, enabling them to
categorize cases in ways that allow the cases to be “handled in the usual way.”
V. Decision-Making Styles
A. Decision-making styles include:
1. Directive
2. Analytical
3. Conceptual
a. Work well with people
4. Behavioral
a. Like to interact with others and welcome open discussions
B. Decision-making styles can also be seen on a continuum from:
1. autocratic (boss centered), in which the boss makes decisions and announces
them, to
VI. Characteristics of Information
A. Decisions are influenced by:
1. Information accuracy. Though essential, this can be especially difficult to obtain
due to:
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2. Order effect—the order in which it is presented—can impact how the information
is interpreted.
3. The availability of information pertaining to alternatives.
a. Many criminal justice decisions are perceived as presenting one of only two
possible solutions.
b. Such dichotomies often support minimax strategies designed to minimize the
maximum loss that could result from a given decision outcome.
c. Minimax strategies typically produce very conservative or low-risk decisions.
B. The introduction of alternatives (i.e., diversion, prerelease options, shortened parole
VII. Discretion
A. Atkins and Pogrebin define discretion as applying to “a situation in which an official
B. Latitude in decision-making by frontline staff is one of the defining characteristics of
human service organizations
C. Critics of discretionary decision-making argue that it often amounts to a total lack of
control.
D. Critics of discretion in criminal justice argue that the latitude given frontline staff has
led to uncontrolled decision-making, which results in illegitimate and even corrupt
practices.
E. The belief that discretion is necessary is now common in criminal justice.
F. Some suggest that discretion in the human services is needed because of the
complexity of the task.
VIII. Prediction
A. The prediction of human behavior is generally thought of as a highly rational
scientific process.
B. Even when non-experts make predictive decisions, their lack of expertise is generally
not viewed as detracting from the rationality of the process.
C. Many criminal justice decisions involve prediction of future behavior.
D. Two broad categories of predictive methodologies exist.
2. Statistical methods specify precisely what information is to be used and how it is
1. Clinical predictions may be unavoidable.
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2. Adequate databases for statistical methods do not exist for many decisions made
in criminal justice.
3. Even where statistical data do exist, clinical processes remain relevant.
F. All decisions based on prediction involve a criterion, such as dangerousness, repeat
offending, failure on parole, or failure on pretrial release.
1. Predictor variables are the variables used to predict the criterion.
2. The most difficult problem in prediction relates to the base rate— the proportion
of individuals in a population who exhibit the criterion —of the criterion variable.
3. Base rates are problematic in criminal justice predictions because:
4. In considering the highly technical aspects of prediction, we should not overlook
the conceptual problems connected with:
a. specifying the criterion
IX. Improving Criminal Justice Decisions
A. Important themes in criminal justice decision-making include:
2. Accuracy (innocents don’t get arrested and guilty don’t get away)
4. Consistency with resources (by considering pragmatic interests)
5. Contribution to future decisions (both process and outcome should help to
improve decision making in the future)
B. These themes should be considered in ideas for influencing the decision-making
process, such as:
2. Concern with the people who make decisions
3. Concern with the information used in decision-making
C. Decision makers should frame decisions as probability estimates so that:
1. the accuracy of those estimates can then be checked against actual behavior
2. policy can dictate the outcome of decisions when probability estimates are made
explicit
D. Dichotomous outcomes should be avoided, as they increase the likelihood that
minimax strategies will be invoked.
E. To make the improvement of decision making an evolutionary process, decision
makers should have feedback about decisions they have made in the past so as to
influence:
2. how the information is combined
3. the theories underlying the decision process
F. The National Institute of Corrections developed a model for decision-making in
criminal justice.
2. Every decision within the system is a chance to reduce harm to society.
4. Decision-making improves when collecting and analyzing data is employed.
5. Clear and specific performance measures can be used to operate more efficiently.
X. Ethical Considerations in Decision-Making
A. Procedural and administrative decisions are made as a matter of daily business in
criminal justice organizations. However, that decision making is far less than perfect
and administrators must consider fairness and equity.
B. A number of factors contribute to imperfect decision making.
2. Time is also scarce as criminal justice practitioners face a steady stream of work
1. Personal biases of individual decision makers also lessen the likelihood of
consistently good decisions.
2. Consistently applied policy and procedure is also beneficial to address ethics.
D. While the system continues to try and improve its decision making process, decision
making will ultimately be in the hands of individuals who are subject to system and
personal flaws that will always limit objective and rational decision making.
CHAPTER SUMMARY
considering implicit and hidden constraints is doomed to failure. Organizations, individual
decision makers, and information itself constrain decision making and assure that a purely
rational model of decisions is not possible under the conditions of ambiguity that exist in
criminal justice. Decision makers impose order where goals may conflict and large amounts of
information are available. An extension of the theoretical perspective suggests that some
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decision making can best be understood as a process of defining problems in terms of the
solutions that already exist.
Recognition of the limits of rationality can help us understand and improve the decision-
making process. Although discretion has sometimes been characterized as unguided by
organizational policy, viewing discretionary decisions from the perspective of bounded
rationality provides direction for change while still preserving the desirable qualities of
discretion. The bounded rationality perspective also suggests that neither clinical nor statistical
prediction should be regarded as an entirely rational process. The limits of rationality are not
inflexible, however. Those limits can be pushed back by managers seeking increasingly rational
decisions. In the literature of criminal justice, several themes are consistent with the pursuit of
increased rationality. The goal of rational decisions suggests attention to equity, accuracy,
consistency with theory and resources, and the development of self-correcting processes.
Procedural and administrative decisions are made as a matter of daily business in
criminal justice organizations. However, that decision making is far less than perfect and
administrators must consider fairness and equity. While the system continues to try and improve
its decision making process, decision-making will ultimately be in the hands of individuals who
are subject to system and personal flaws that will always limit objective and rational decision
REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What caused you to decide to go to college? What was your goal or goals? What
information did you seek to help you pick a college or university that would help you
meet your goals? List some of the information you would have needed to make a purely
2. Consider a probation officer contemplating a decision to seek revocation of a client’s
probation. What theories might underlie such a decision? What are the goals? What kinds
of information should the officer seek? What kinds of feedback might the probation
officer want in order to influence later decisions?
3. What are some of the biases that would underlie a police officer’s discretionary decision
whether or not to make an arrest? What biases or beliefs do you possess that would
impact your decision to make an arrest or to release the offender?
4. Cover the pros and cons of participative decision-making. From what you know about the
5. Consider ethical issues involved in the day to work of a probation officer. Does his or her
discretion come with certain ethical implications? What if the probation officer is a
distant relation to the probationer? What policies should probation departments maintain
to manage ethical issues?
DISCUSSION TOPICS/STUDENT ACTIVITIES
1. Form the students into five groups. Give the groups 20 minutes to analyze the case study
on pages 378 and 379 of the text (The Old Boys Don’t Like Plea Bargaining). Assign
2. Have the students discuss how a police officer may go through a decision-making process
4. Have the students discuss the boundaries or regulations of police discretionary decisions.
5. Present the students with an ethical dilemma in a criminal justice setting. i.e. motorist
offers an officer a bribe; probationer attempts to influence his officer with a good deal on
INTERNET CONNECTIONS
1. Access Run Sun and Isaac Naveh’s Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
3. Access Dr. Ted Putnam’s article “The Collapse of Decisionmaking [sic] and
4. Visit the National Criminal Justice Reference Service for an essay on Police Decision–
Making processes, available at http://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/213004.pdf
5. Review “An Ethical Decision–Making Model” at the Ethics Scoreboard website, it is