6. Caterpillar is selling earthmoving equipment to an Indonesian construction company.
Caterpillar must choose whether to denominate the contract in U.S. dollars or in
Indonesian rupiah. Suppose that the spot exchange rate is IDR9150/$ and that there is
no forward market. Suppose, too, that there is a possibility that the rupiah will be
devalued relative to the dollar during the next year. If Caterpillar prices the contract in
dollars, it will charge $15,000,000 and will expect to be paid in 1 year. It is also willing
to discuss pricing the machines in rupiah. The Indonesian firm thinks that there is a
60% chance the exchange rate will remain the same and a 40% chance it will increase
to IDR9300/$. Caterpillar thinks that there is a 65% probability of the exchange rate
remaining the same and a 35% probability that it will increase to ID9450/$. How
should the deal be priced, and who will bear the risk of devaluation of the rupiah?
Answer: The Indonesian construction company thinks that the expected future spot rate is