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CHAPTER 10
JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING AND FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS
ANSWERS TO PROBLEMS AND CASES
1. The Delphi method can be used in any forecasting situation where there is little or no
historical data and there is expert opinion (experience) available. Two examples might
be:
Potential difficulties associated with the Delphi method include:
2. a. Month Averaged Forecast
1 4924.5
3 6769.0
5 4964.0
7 8212.5
9 4806.5
b. Month WtAvg Forecast
1 4721.4
3 6731.2
5 4991.6
7 8362.2
9 4596.8
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CASE 10-1: GOLDEN GARDENS RESTAURANT
1. & 2. Sue and Bill have tackled a very tough business project: designing a restaurant
that will succeed. Restaurants seem to come and go on a regular basis so their
planning efforts prior to opening are important.
They have already tried focus groups and have some ideas to add to their own.
CASE 10-2: ALOMEGA FOOD STORES
2. The MSE for the multiple regression model (from the regression output)
CASE 10-3: THE LYDIA E. PINKHAM MEDICINE COMPANY REVISITED
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1. These articles are more abundant than many realize. More “p
particularly financial markets titles such as Technical Analysis of Stocks &
2. The interested student with access to a neural network simulator should enjoy
3. Model specification is as much an art as it is a science. for example, look at Case
9-4 where the choice between ARIMA(1,1,0) and AR(2) models is not clearcut. Neural