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Chapter 8: Capitalizing on Global and Regional Integration
euphemism for agricultural subsidies) in response to recent swings in food prices. Such
subsidies would soon grow large enough to violate WTO rules, which dictate that no
developing country could subsidize more than 10 percent of the total value of harvests to
farmers.
Students can have a healthy debate on why India would not trade food for trade and also the
consequences of giving up the gains from smoother trade.
Closing Case Discussion Guide
What If NAFTA Goes Away?
In effect since 1994, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has no shortage of
controversies. As Trump has assumed power, the criticisms against NAFTA, potentially
culminating in a repeal of NAFTA, force individuals to entertain a previously unthinkable
scenario: What happens if NAFTA goes away?
What about jobs? In brief, no “giant sucking sound” has been heard. NAFTA has allowed U.S.
firms to preserve more U.S. jobs, because 40 percent of the value of U.S. imports from Mexico
and 25 percent from Canada are actually made in the United States.
So what if NAFTA goes away? First, as an institutional framework, NAFTA merely represents
some relatively new rules of the game that are artificial and man-made. Second, if the Trump
administration unilaterally imposes high import tariffs, Canada and Mexico will certainly
respond in kind. Given the reality of NAFTA supply chain, a tariff is like erecting a wall in the
middle of a factory. Third, since both Canada and Mexico have free trade agreements (FTAs)
with the European Union (EU), the U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA will significantly help
increase EU firms’ market share there.
Finally, shutting down NAFTA does not bring back a large number of manufacturing jobs to the
United States. The recent crises facing U.S. manufacturing jobs, falling from 17 million to 11
million between 2000 and 2010, have little to do with NAFTA.
There is wide spread belief that Trump’s nasty rhetoric on NAFTA is just “talk.” Procedurally,
Trump is required to seek congressional approval if he merely wants to renegotiate NAFTA.
Congress is unlikely to support a policy to throw away so many benefits and to spark retaliatory
trade sanctions in America’s top two export markets—with so little gains. While NAFTA is not a
panacea and has its problems, dismantling it would be “lunacy,” according to Texas Monthly.
Video Case