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Chapter 5: Trading Internationally
Closing Case Discussion Guide
The China Trade Debate
Since 2011, China has dethroned Germany to become the world’s champion merchandise
(goods) exporter. Substantiating free trade theories’ claim that international trade is a win-win
game, active trading has not only made China richer, but also made its trading partners richer.
Since 2001, US exports to China soared by 500 percent, doubling the growth of US exports to
the rest of the world. Overall, US–China trade supports approximately 2.6 million US jobs and
adds 1.2 percent to US GDP (Exhibit 5.13). However, not all is rosy. The US trade deficit with
China has provoked an enormous debate (Exhibit 5.14). Despite enviable export success, the
United States, due to its extraordinary appetite for imports, runs the world’s largest merchandise
trade deficit. In 2015, it reached a $760 billion (5 percent of GDP). The lion’s share, $334 billion
(1.9 percent of GDP), was contributed by merchandise trade deficit with China.
Armed with classical theories, free traders argue that this is not a grave concern. They argue that
the United States and China mutually benefit by developing a deeper division of labor based on
comparative advantage. The real US trade deficit with China is often overstated, because
substantial value of Chinese exports is imported. If the value of such imported components is
subtracted from China’s exports, then the US trade deficit with China would be reduced in half,
to less than 1 percent of US GDP—about the same as the US trade deficit with the EU.
Quantitatively, such a level is manageable.
Critics strongly disagree. They argue that international trade is about competition—about
markets, jobs, and incomes. Economic Armageddon between the top two economies in the world
with a 45 percent tariff on all Chinese imports could shave off 13 percent from China’s exports
and 1.4 percent of its GDP growth. But the United States could hardly hope to do better, and the
poorest Americans would be the hardest hit.
Video Case
Watch “New Ventures” by John Stewart of McKinsey and Company
1. Stewart discusses how difficult it may be to successfully get into a new venture or industry.
Why are there such difficulties?