number of the methodology‘s critical elements. To satisfy the APA’s “arbitrary
and capricious” standard, an agency must “articulate a satisfactory explanation
for its action including a ‘rational connection between the facts found and the
reasoned decisionmaking,” id. at 52, 103 S.Ct. 2856.
[9] Link to KeyCite Notes 1. Public Citizen notes that the TIFA data, upon which
FMCSA’s time-on-task multipliers were ultimately based, indicates that “the risk
of fatal-crash involvement more than doubled from the 10th hour to the 11th.”
Public Citizen Br. 48-49 (citing 2005 RIA at 45 (J.A. 1665)). The actual time-on–
First, as explained above, instead of using the crash risk figures for each hour of
driving that the TIFA Study had calculated directly from the actual crash data,
FMCSA derived a cubic curve of crash risk as a function of time on task. To
derive the curve, FMCSA first plotted the TIFA figures for Hours 1 through 12,
and then used an aggregate measure for Hour 13 and beyond. It did not,
curve would have produced a significantly higher estimate of the risk of a fatigue–
related crash at Hour 11-a figure close to that which the TIFA Study had
calculated directly. See Public Citizen Br. 49-50, A-3 (displaying alternative
curve).
[10] Link to KeyCite Notes[11] Link to KeyCite Notes FMCSA’s decision to plot
Phase-Down Task Force v. EPA, 705 F.2d 506, 535 (D.C.Cir.1983)). Although
the agency’s brief defends the use of a cubic curve on the ground that the margin
of error in the underlying TIFA data was relatively large,FN3 this again misses
the point: the issue is not whether a curve should have been used, but why the