ETHICAL DILEMMA
Mary Mary Quite Contrary, What Makes Your Sales Forecasts Grow?
Ethical dilemma:
SMS is evaluating a new synthetic steel to determine whether the company should invest in its
producuion, and Mary is in charge of estimating the cash flows that the project will produce. Mary finds
herself in a situation that is not uncommon in business; her boss seems to think that SMS should invest in
the synthetic steel, and he told Mary that he doesn’t like her original cash flow estimates. As a result, Mary’s
boss asked her to reconsider her forecasts. Mary decided to change her numbers to accommodate the
boss, even though she believes that the growth rate needed to attain the revised cash flows is unrealistic. It
appears that when the revised cash flows are used in the final investment analysis, the project’s NPV and
IRR will indicate that SMS should invest in the synthetic steel production process. However, if SMS bases
its decision on “bad numbers” and invests the billions of dollars that are necessary, in the future it will
discover that the project actually should have been rejected. And, it is possible that this discovery will
come too late for the firm to correct its mistake, in which case the firm might find itself in serious financial
trouble.
Discussion questions:
• Is there an ethical problem? If so, what is it?
The question here is whether Mary should have changed her cash blow estimates just because her
• Was it appropriate for Mary’s boss do request that she change her cash flow estimates?
Mary’s boss is the investment officer, who is charged with making investment decisions. It is his
• Was it appropriate for Mary to change her cash flow estimates?
Mary must provide realistic cash flow estimates; otherwise SMS might make bad investments. If Mary
• What would do if you were Mary?
Perhaps the best solution is to provide the investment officer with two or three alternative scenarios,