CHAPTER 29 –
Possible states Joint probability
Rain-Rain .1(.1) = .01
Rain-Warm .1(.4) = .04
Rain-Hot .1(.5) = .05
Next, note that the revenue when rainy is the same regardless of which town. So, since the state
“Rain-Warm” has the same outcome (revenue) as “Warm-Rain”, their probabilities can be
added. The same is true of “Rain-Hot” / “Hot-Rain” and “Warm-Hot” / “Hot-Warm”. Thus the
joint probabilities are:
Possible states Joint probability
Rain-Rain .01
Finally, the joint values are the sums of the values of the two companies for the particular state.
Possible states Joint value
Rain-Rain $230,000 + 230,000 = $460,000
Rain-Warm $230,000 + 450,000 = 680,000
Rain-Hot $230,000 + 905,000 = 1,135,000
b. Recall that if a firm cannot service its debt, the bondholders receive the value of the assets.
Thus, the value of the debt is reduced to the value of the company if the face value of the debt
is greater than the value of the company. If the value of the company is greater than the value of
the debt, the value of the debt is its face value. Here, the value of the common stock is always
the residual value of the firm over the value of the debt. So, the value of the debt and the value
of the stock in each state is:
Possible
stat
es
Joint Prob. Joint Value Debt Value Stock Value
Rain-Rain .01 $460,000 $460,000 $0
Rain-Warm .08 680,000 680,000 0
6