Why FX occurs
Buyers want to purchase in own currency, so sellers assume risk as part of their offering
Risk of movement may be substantial, as freely floating currencies can shift considerably
The FX market
Reciprocal is a currency that is quoted as dollars per unit (using dollar as base currency) of
currency instead of in units of currency per dollar
Spot rate is rate for exchange within two business days
Forward rate is for a contract deliverable in a specified time in the future (30, 60, 90 days)
Bid is highest-priced buy order, while ask is lowest-priced sell order
What causes FX movement
Many variables—inflation, supply and demand, productivity, labor costs, political situation,
inflation, the Fischer effect
2. International application: the interest rate differentials for any two currencies will
reflect the expected change in their exchange rates.
3. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), an application of the law of one price: currency
exchange rates between two currencies should equal the ratio of the price levels of
their commodity baskets (The Economist’s Big Mac Index)
Exchange rate forecasting
Efficient market approach: assumption that current market prices reflect all available
information
Random Walk Approach: assumption that the unpredictability of the factors that influence
exchange rates suggests that the best predictor of tomorrow’s prices are today’s prices
Fundamental approach: prediction based on economic models that attempt to capture the
variables and their correct relationships
Technical analysis: approach analyzes data and projects these trends forward