CHAPTER 17 B – 6
value falls, the percentage decrease in value over the period is –17.48 percent [= ($85/$103) –
1]. We can determine the risk-neutral probability of an increase in the value of the company as:
Risk-free rate = (ProbabilityRise)(ReturnRise) + (ProbabilityFall)(ReturnFall)
And the risk-neutral probability of a decline in the company value is:
ProbabilityFall = 1 – ProbabilityRise
Using these risk-neutral probabilities, we can determine the expected payoff to the equityholders’
call option at expiration, which will be:
Expected payoff at expiration = (.6303)($30,000,000) + (.3698)($0)
Expected payoff at expiration = $18,907,500.00
Since this payoff occurs 1 year from now, we must discount it at the risk-free rate in order to find
its present value. So:
PV(Expected payoff at expiration) = $18,907,500.00/1.07
outstanding. So, the price per share is:
Price per share = Total equity value/Shares outstanding
Price per share = $17,670,560.75/300,000
Price per share = $58.90
of riskless debt is $88,785,046.73 (= $95,000,000/1.07). The firm’s debt is worth less than the
present value of riskless debt since there is a risk that it will not be repaid in full. In other words,
the market value of the debt takes into account the risk of default. Since there is a chance that the
company might not repay its debtholders in full, the debt is worth less than $88,785,046.73.
million, the equityholders will exercise their call option, and they will receive a payoff of $40