The stock price today is $73. It will either decrease to $61 or increase to $83 in six months. If the
stock price falls to $61, the put will be exercised and the payoff will be $14. If the stock price
rises to $83, the put will not be exercised, so the payoff will be zero.
If the stock price rises, its return over the period is 13.70 percent [= ($83/$73) – 1]. If the stock
price falls, its return over the period is –16.44 percent [= ($61/$73) –1]. Use the following
expression to determine the risk-neutral probability of a rise in the price of the stock:
Risk-free rate = (ProbabilityRise)(ReturnRise) + (ProbabilityFall)(ReturnFall)
Risk-free rate = (ProbabilityRise)(ReturnRise) + (1 – ProbabilityRise)(ReturnFall)
Risk-free rate = (ProbabilityRise)(ReturnRise) + (ProbabilityFall)(ReturnFall)
.0213 = (ProbabilityRise)(.1370) + (1 – ProbabilityRise)(–.1644)
ProbabilityRise = .6160, or 61.60%
Which means the risk-neutral probability of a decrease in the stock price is:
ProbabilityFall = 1 – ProbabilityRise
ProbabilityFall = 1 – .6160
to find its present value, which is:
PV(Expected payoff at expiration) = $5.38/(1.043)1/2
PV(Expected payoff at expiration) = $5.26
described above. In order to do this, we need to short shares of the stock and lend at the risk-free
rate. The number of shares that should be shorted is based on the delta of the option, where delta
is defined as:
Delta = (Swing of option)/(Swing of stock)
Since the put option will be worth $0 if the stock price rises and $14 if it falls, the swing of the
call option is –$14 (= $0 – 14). Since the stock price will either be $83 or $61 at the time of the