Chapter 9: Mortgage Markets 7
Interpreting Financial News
Interpret the following comments made by Wall Street analysts and portfolio managers.
a. “If interest rates continue to decline, the interest-only CMOs will take a hit.”
When interest rates decline, mortgages are commonly prepaid, and the interest payments on those
b. “Estimating the proper value of CMOs is like estimating the proper value of a baseball player; the
proper value is much easier to assess five years later.”
The future value of a CMO is dependent on the future interest rate movements. Since interest rate
c. “When purchasing principal-only (PO) CMOs, be ready for a bumpy ride.”
.
Managing in Financial Markets
As a manager of a savings institution, you must decide whether to invest in collateralized mortgage
obligations (CMOs). You can purchase interest-only (IO) or principal-only (PO) classes. You anticipate
that economic conditions will weaken in the future and that government spending (and therefore
government demand for funds) will decrease.
a. Given your expectations, would IOs or POs be a better investment?
POs would be a better investment. Given your expectations, interest rates are likely to decrease.
This would result in mortgage prepayments, which causes interest payments on those mortgages
b. Given the situation, is there any reason why you might not purchase the class of CMOs that you
selected in the previous question?
If you are not confident about the future interest rate movements, you may prefer to avoid any
c. Your boss suggests that the value of CMOs at any point in time should be the present value of
their future payments. He says that since a CMO represents mortgages, its valuation should be
simple. Why is your boss wrong?
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