were higher.
18. Value at Risk.
a. How is the maximum expected loss on a stock affected by an increase in the volatility (standard
deviation), based on a 95 percent confidence interval?
b. Determine how the maximum expected loss on a stock would be affected by an increase in the
expected return of the stock, based on a 95 percent confidence interval.
ANSWER: The maximum expected loss would now be less pronounced than before, because the
Flow of Funds Exercise
Valuing Stocks
Recall that if the economy continues to be strong, Carson Company may need to increase its production
capacity by about 50 percent over the next few years to satisfy demand. It would need financing to
expand and accommodate the increase in production. Recall that the yield curve is currently upward
sloping. Also recall that Carson is concerned about a possible slowing of the economy because of
potential Fed actions to reduce inflation. It is also considering issuing stock or bonds to raise funds in the
next year. If Carson goes public, it might even consider using its stock as a means of acquiring some
target firms. It would also consider engaging in a secondary offering at a future point in time if the IPO is
successful and if its growth continues over time. It would also change its compensation system to
compensate most of its managers with shares of its stock that would represent about 30 percent of their
compensation and would pay the remainder of the compensation as salary.
a. At the present time, the price-earnings (PE) ratio (stock price per share divided by
earnings per share) of other firms in Carson’s industry is relatively low but should rise in the
future. Why might this information affect the time at which Carson issues its stock?
Carson would like to attempt to issue the shares when the valuation of its stock is favorable.
b. Assume that Carson Company believes that issuing of stock is an efficient means of
circumventing the potential for high interest rates. Even if long-term interest rates have increased
by the time it issues stock, Carson thinks that it would be insulated by issuing stock instead of
bonds. Is this view correct?