International Arbitrage and Interest Rate Parity 8
27. Interpreting Changes in the Forward Premium. Assume that interest rate parity holds. At the
beginning of the month, the spot rate of the Canadian dollar is $.70, while the one-year forward rate is
$.68. Assume that U.S. interest rates increase steadily over the month. At the end of the month, the
one-year forward rate is higher than it was at the beginning of the month. Yet, the one-year forward
discount is larger (the one-year premium is more negative) at the end of the month than it was at the
beginning of the month. Explain how the relationship between the U.S. interest rate and the Canadian
interest rate changed from the beginning of the month until the end of the month.
ANSWER: The forward discount at the beginning of the month implies that the U.S. interest rate is
28. Interpreting a Large Forward Discount. The interest rate in Indonesia is commonly higher than the
interest rate in the U.S., which reflects a higher expected rate of inflation there. Why should Nike
consider hedging its future remittances from Indonesia to the U.S. parent even when the forward
discount on the currency (rupiah) is so large?
ANSWER: Nike may still consider hedging under these conditions because the alternative is to be
29. Change in the Forward Premium. At the end of this month, you (owner of a U.S. firm) are meeting
with a Japanese firm to which you will try to sell supplies. If you receive an order from that firm,
you will obtain a forward contract to hedge the future receivables in yen. As of this morning, the
forward rate of the yen and spot rate are the same. You believe that interest rate parity holds.
This afternoon, news occurs that makes you believe that the U.S. interest rates will increase
substantially by the end of this month, and that the Japanese interest rate will not change. However,
your expectations of the spot rate of the Japanese yen are not affected at all in the future. How will
your expected dollar amount of receivables from the Japanese transaction be affected (if at all) by the
news that occurred this afternoon? Explain.
ANSWER: If U.S. interest rates increase, then the forward rate of the yen will exhibit a premium.
30. Testing IRP. The one-year interest rate in Singapore is 11 percent. The one-year interest rate in the
U.S. is 6 percent. The spot rate of the Singapore dollar (S$) is $.50 and the forward rate of the S$ is
$.46. Assume zero transactions costs.
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