3.38 In the next chapter, Figure 4.14 shows the annual mean growth rate (units of ppm
CO2/year) measured at Mauna Loa (Hawaii). The annual mean rate of growth of CO2 in a given
year is the difference in concentration between the end of December and the start of January of
that year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that the
annual growth rate is similar to the global growth rate of CO2 in the atmosphere (Dr. Pieter Tans,
NOAA/ESRL, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/, and Dr. Ralph Keeling, Scripps
Institution of Oceangraphy, scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/).
(a) What is the average growth rate of CO2 in the atmosphere over this 20-year period (ppm
CO2/year)? (b) Review the shape of the figure showing the atmospheric CO2 measurements
made at Mauna Loa over the past 50 years (Figure 4.14 of the next chapter or the web site
referred to above). Does the data follow a first order or zero order reactor order? Explain your
answer. (c)_ Assume that the 1959 monthly mean concentration of CO2 measured at Mauna Loa
was 315 ppm. Using the average growth rate you determined in part (a) over the 20-year period
and the appropriate reactor order, what atmospheric CO2 concentration would you estimate for
the year 1980, 2012, and 2050?
Solution
given in Table 3.12 with the
mean growth rate of
CO2/year on the y-axis as the
dependent variable and the
years on the x-axis. Use
linear regression to add a
trendline to the data.
The slope of this trendline is
the growth rate of CO2 in the
atmosphere.
𝒌=𝟎.𝟎𝟒𝟓𝟐 𝒑𝒑𝒎𝑪𝑶𝟐/
𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓
y = 0.0452x – 88.027
R² = 0.4472
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1959 1964 1969 1974 1979
Mean grwoth rate of CO2/year (ppm)
Years