Chapter 16: Managing Costs and Uncertainty IM 15
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i. For example, the events of September 11, 2001, dealt a severe economic blow to most
industries in the United States but for the airline industry the impact of 9/11 was nearly
fatal as airlines lost 100 percent of their revenues for a brief period and a large portion of
revenues for an extended period after that disaster.
ii. When firms plan for unforeseen events, it is impossible to know the severity of all
LO.9: What are the four generic approaches to managing uncertainty?
3. Four strategies for dealing with uncertainty
a. There are four generic strategies for dealing with cost management uncertainties:
i. First, uncertainty can be explicitly factored into estimates of future costs;
b. Explicitly Considering Uncertainty When Estimating Future Costs
i. In the following equation, y is the cost or other item to be predicted (dependent variable);
a and b are, respectively, the intercept and slope in the prediction equation; and X is the
predictor variable (independent variable).
ii. The least squares method is used to develop estimates of the values for a and b in the
prediction equation:
y = a + bX
iii. When alternative independent variables exist, least squares regression can help select
the independent variable that is the best predictor of the dependent variable.
iv. The coefficient of determination is the portion of the variance in the dependent variable
that is explained by the variance in the independent variable.
The value of this statistic ranges between 0 and 1.
A value of 0 indicates the relationship between the predictor variable and the
ideal).
v. Text Exhibit 16.11 (p. 662) illustrates the hypothetical relationship of factory utility costs
to two alternative predictor variables: machine hours and plant production hours.