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U5. (a) ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSLE SITE IN POLAND
In August 2008, after 18 months of negotiations, the United States signed an agreement with
Poland to base anti-ballistic-missile missiles—or interceptors—on Polish soil.1 A related radar site is
Russia contends that the placement of the interceptors would undermine and threaten its
military interests, and has strongly objected to the plan. The radar site in the Czech Republic would be
In July 2007, Russia engaged in an overt display of screening, when President Vladimir Putin
publicly offered the Russian-rented radar base at Garbala in Azerbaijan (which borders Iran) as an
alternative to the proposed sites in Poland and the Czech Republic. America’s refusal is cited by Russia as
Two major arms-control treaties have thus far been abandoned in relation to the plan. To lay the
groundwork for a system of multiple radar and interceptor sites, the United States, under the George W.
Games of Strategy, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2015 W. W. Norton & Company
Bush administration, unilaterally withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in December
Aside from escalated military rhetoric and the remote possibility of armed confrontation, an
economic crisis might result if the installation of the interceptors goes forward as planned. Russia often
1 www.state.gov/documents/organization/180542.pdf
(b) DETERRING IRAN FROM OBTAINING NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Despite years of concerted diplomacy by the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, and a series
of United Nations Security Council resolutions (1696, 1737, and 1803), Iran continues to enrich uranium.
Iran maintains that its intention is only to produce fuel for two nuclear power plants under construction.
Games of Strategy, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2015 W. W. Norton & Company
The Iranian leadership asserts its right to enrich uranium under the terms of the Non-Proliferation Treaty
and disavows any desire to produce highly enriched uranium for military purposes. Many in the
Continued enrichment within Iran is worrisome because exactly the same process that is used to
obtain uranium with a 5% concentration of the isotope U-235 can, with only a little more effort, produce
bomb-grade uranium with a 90% concentration of U-235. Moreover, the acquisition of bomb-grade
Future crises over this issue would likely involve increased threats of diplomatic and economic
sanctions, as well as direct or implied threats of military strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The
Any form of brinkmanship with Iran would carry significant economic risks to both sides—and to
the world. Geographically, Iran commands the narrow Straight of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the
Games of Strategy, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2015 W. W. Norton & Company
Games of Strategy, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2015 W. W. Norton & Company
